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A Brother needs SERIOUS HELP... with Brunswick Stew....

OK....

Heads up Math and Stat guys...  B'rer 'Roo, Yogi, SqlWolf, GC, et al...

So I cooked a 'good' Brunswick stew for Christmas...
As tradition requires, I started with a rock and a nail...

Made 33 quarts...I've given 18 quarts away to friends and family...

My son got 4 quarts... and here's where this gets interesting...
--------------

He met this girl and let's say she's a 'keeper'....
He gave her parents 1 of the 4 quarts he had...

AND they got BOTH the Rock and the Nail !!!

The deck was not stacked.... this is a totally random event, I promise....

Now.... I need to know the statistical probability of THIS random event ASAP !!!

He's bringing HER to dinner at my house for the FIRST time tomorrow pm and my Son is in his WTF mood which is not good... given the circumstances....

I need your help to nip this in the bud.

Thanks in advance for your expertise in these matters and your answers.

GO PACK!

-botb

--------------

If any of you don't know why you put a rock and nail in your stew, lemme know and I'll post the answer after tomorrow...


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Comments

  • freshmanin83freshmanin83 Posts: 947PFN Referee
    They may need too know how many scoops per jar.
  • Used a ladle... 4.5 scoops per container... more or less....



  • realpackfanrealpackfan Posts: 169
    Bill, I am sorry.  I've lived in SENC all my life and never heard of such...rock and nail ???
  • freshmanin83freshmanin83 Posts: 947PFN Referee
    Wild guess .09% chance.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,513
    The quality of the Brunswick Stew is how my grandfather judged BBQ places. 
  • Given the density of rocks and nails, I'm going to say it depends on who is doing the dipping and stirring.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,598
    Please supply the following data or parameter variables for the probability equation.

    Dimensions of cooking vessel, type of material, specific gravity of vessel, etc.

    Dimensions (see above) of the ladle.  Also need a CAD drawing of the ladle's lip or tip (used for pouring)

    Angle of ladle handle during filling process (average for each quart jar).  X Axis of the ladle and Y Axis of handle.

    Material certification for the steel (assuming it was steel and not aluminum) Nail.

    Geological workup of rock including CAD as well as specific gravity.  Note, Atomic Carbon dating of rock might be required later on.

    Formula for stew.  Must include all ingredients and be expressed in quantitative units of measure.....smidge, pinch, cubit, etc. are not sufficient.  Metric is preferred, but can convert to Southern English or American.

    Temperature profile (15 minute intervals) of stew....measured at exact midpoint or geometric center of cooking vessel mass.  

    Ambient conditions (temperature, wind, moisture or rain and rel hum) during cooling

    Type of fuel or heat (gas, propane, wood alcohol, Coleman, geothermal, solar, etc).  If wood, need species, specific gravity and moisture content of a 20 piece sample.

    Please advise when the above will be submitted.  There is the probability (not quantified at this point...but HIGH) that other variables and data will be required.

    In addition, please establish a line of credit, provide a CC or a PayPal email address for the consulting work.  Rates will be supplied, gratis, after the above is provided so that an accurate estimate of the billable hours and computer (type, speed, etc) can be estimated.

    Thank you, in advance, for your prompt attention to this pressing matter....
  • bill_onthebeachbill_onthebeach Posts: 268
    edited January 26
    'Roo ... that's the longest "I don't have a clue" answer I've seen in years...

    This is not that complicated...

    you got 33 quarts of stew...
    you got 1 - 16p nail...
    you got 1 round river rock 1.25" in diameter...

    Stew gets packaged and put in the freezer in random order...
    Stew comes out of freezer one at a time in random order...

    11 people have gotten stew in random order and there's 12 still in the freezer...


    GO PACK!

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,598
    funny, I learned that technique in courses where we had the infamous "Blue Books" and from listening to certain elected officials....and sometimes some pumped up preachers....

    Once you comply with my request, I will give you and estimate of the time and resources needed.  That will also include an estimate of the confidence level of the final probability.

    not to digress, but it would be helpful if you defined the infamous "THEY" in the following statement.  For purposes of clarity, in a redacted format, please revise the following using the following terms.

    Son1; Girl (keeper) 1; Parent 1A & 1B or Family Unit 1.

    They (needs definition based on the above)  Inconclusive information to determine if THEY is an individual or a collective body or COMBINATION....this will impact the equation....as well as the cost for the services and resources.  

    BOTB SAID....

    My son got 4 quarts... and here's where this gets interesting...
    --------------

    He met this girl and let's say she's a 'keeper'....
    He gave her parents 1 of the 4 quarts he had...

    AND they got BOTH the Rock and the Nail !!!

    Thanks.... 

  • Pack78Pack78 Posts: 248
    Guess we are assuming that the mixture was ' well-stirred'!
  • bill_onthebeachbill_onthebeach Posts: 268
    edited January 26
    It's real Brunswick stew... cooked six hours... and thick as molasses, not what most BBQ restaurants call vegetable soup...

    Can't do that without a whole of stirring...

    Speaking of PotStirrers...
    B'rer 'Roo....

    I ain't got time for all that... It's T-4hrs to kickoff...

    I need an answer RITENOW !
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,598
    Obviously the fruit jar be EMPTY - OH....if you are waiting for the KICKOFF in the PNC....which probably explains the lack or conciseness and clarity in your digital renderings.

    I am temporarily indisposed (resting now between sets) as I have to complete my PT regimine PRIOR to the 2:00 PM TIP OFF....

    Sent Wife and Number 1 daughter to game....good for my diet also as I am trying to hold weight to my "hospital release" range which puts less stress on my left leg and knee.

    Back to exercising.....Does Bubba the Bootlegger deliver by UBER in your locale?
  • freshmanin83freshmanin83 Posts: 947PFN Referee
    My wild guess had some math involved but not sure if it was exact needed equation.
  • YogiNCYogiNC Posts: 458
    hmmm... roo, I have no idea where this came from "As tradition requires, I started with a rock and a nail". 

    Having lived quite some time in south Georgia and not too far from the true origin of said Brunswick Stew, and having tasted quite a bit from old timers who had the recipe handed down to them through many generations or so they said, and also having observed a goodly deal of these guys making said stew I never once saw a rock OR a nail put into their large black cast iron pots.  Nor did I observe anyone on multiple occasions when all said stew was consumed find or chew on a nail and/or rock. 

    After many google searches with many combinations of "Brunswick Stew" and "rock" and "nail" I have yet to find an answer, although with the vastness of Google's reach one would surmise that by a greater chance of one jar containing said nail and rock that at least one web page would have some some discussion of putting a rock and nail in a pot of said stew.

    Having not found any results to describe as such I await a dissertation on said tradition.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,598
    HMMMMM, Er, Yogi....

    BRO BOTB started this worldly topic, which I did respond to.  I too used my vast network of experts and quantum level technology experts and they arrived at the same conclusion....

    No one outside of the hollerin’ sphere of BOTB land (you DO remember that the DOME was videoed in the Wilmington area....so maybe there is an isolated conclave there and BOTB is the Mayor?)  has EVER heard of placing two inorganic and incompatible inedible objects in a pot of Brunswick Stew.  

    Perhaps there will be a logical explanation, other than he is emptying the Fruit jar and is really feeling, Gay Oh...


  • YogiNCYogiNC Posts: 458
    Roo, I was abdicating to you for a possibility of the answer to my quandary.  Obviously you are likewise at a loss for an explanation as I am.  I couldn't try to solve the mathematical odds part without getting past the fact there was a rock and a nail purposefully injected into something consumable as food.  As my dogs would discern there is food and not food.  Knowing that BOTB would put "not food "into "food" would call into question whether or not I'd consider bellying up to his table if given an invitation.
  • HighstickHighstick Posts: 296PFN Referee
    Only a State grad!  Jeez, let me ask if the answer is "linear"?  However, I've got a buddy(UnC grad however) from Weldon that fancies himself as a Brunswick Stew chef.  Let me check with him to see if he's ever heard of the rock and nail.  That was a new one on me and we used to cook a hog, fish stew or Brunswick stew every Friday when I was working for a grain dealer in Ayden in grad school.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,598
    Highstick said:
    Only a State grad!  Jeez, let me ask if the answer is "linear"?  However, I've got a buddy(UnC grad however) from Weldon that fancies himself as a Brunswick Stew chef.  Let me check with him to see if he's ever heard of the rock and nail.  That was a new one on me and we used to cook a hog, fish stew or Brunswick stew every Friday when I was working for a grain dealer in Ayden in grad school.
    I remember when I was a Volunteer Fireman in Woodland.  Other than Deer Season and the Saturday night dance in Conway (major money maker for the Divorce Attorneys), the other two epic events was cooking a Rock (fish) Muddle and goin’ to the river when the Shad were runnin’.

    The muddle was a fund raiser, so we stayed up all night and the “elders” would start the tastin’ in the wee hours....accompanied of course by straight JD, no ice.

    Even after several JD’s, it still, to me and my advanced olfactory senses, a fishy smelling Brunswick stew.  There weren’t no rock or nails added.  I remember that seconds were passed round, but measured carefully as we were packaging and selling it.  I made the ultimate sacrifice and told them to donate my second serving to the general pot as I wanted the WVFD to maximize the fund’s revenue.  They were in tears at my benevolent act of kindness and sacrifice.

    OK....all you Easterners.....chime in
  • oldwolfoldwolf Posts: 101
    I have my great grandmothers iron washpot and have been cooking my Brunswick Stew (Nash County style) all my life using my fathers handed down recipe and have  never heard of a rock and a nail.

    And there is a County in Virginia that disputed your South Georgia name for it ?
  • YogiNCYogiNC Posts: 458
    You got a county agin' a state.  My money is on the dawg.  I've had lots of Brunswick Stew in many a place but a dude who taught me more about cookin' than any other source I've ever come in contact with would make a pot of it that put every other pot I've tasted to shame. 

    More than once I saw him oversee cookin' a dozen pots of it for fund raising and then starting at noon they were all sold out within an hour selling it by the pint or quart container.  People would be lined up starting around 10 AM.  Saw one man buy a whole pot full once for a party.  It was the best I ever ate I tell ya. 

    And you could line up 10 batches from different sources and I could pick his out blindfolded by smell.  He shared his recipe EXCEPT his bag of "special seasonings" of which he had one each for every pot.  It made Brunswick Stew catnip for me.  After we moved back to NC I drove 8 hours once just to be there for one of their fund raisers and I brought 2 gallons back home with me.
  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 290
    wow, my squirrel brain just exploded.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,598
    If I remember some recipes, they call for the meat of two medium grey squirrels.  I used to harvest  few for my wife’s granny....with a 22LR and even dressed them out.


  • For the record, I was told there would be no math involved.
  • SQLWolfSQLWolf Posts: 91
    I don't know how y'all made such a complicated mess of all this statistical analysis problem. Dude made 33 quartz of stew and someone (potential in-laws) got a quart (1 aliquot unit) of aforementioned stew. If we assume lots of stirring and randomization of rock and nail locations within the stew, my calculation is that there is a 1 in 33 chance "you" get a rock in your single aliquot unit (quart). There's a 1 in 33 chance of getting a nail in your aliquot. So multiply 1/33 times 1/33. Carry the one and round to the nearest sig fig. That gets you a 9 in 10000 chance of getting both the rock and nail in one aliquot unit out of 33 aliquots.

    I am sure someone else more well versed in mathemagical reck'nin can give you a better answer.
  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 452
    I’ve introduced a Silver Pigeon to the educated rat population, starting 1/1 the score is 33-0.  So, bushy tail for anyone who doesn’t mind 7.5 lead.


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