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Inflation; Supply Chain Shortages; Zombies, Cyber Currency, Whatever…

This is a catch all, assuming the the HiTech Gurus will permit.

just got off the phone with two local Hendrick service managers. I go way back with them and they treat me like royalty as my DW has close ties to the top of the Hendrick ladder….one rung down.

Minor issue with Vette as it’s never been used windshield washer pump doesn’t work, Have the gold plated Hendrick extended warranty. No LOANER unless it is a serious take out the engine fix. The loaner fleet is is being sold. The Chevy inventory is at an all time low….no ECM’s started it, but like Covid, mutations in entertainment centers, dash (DIC) modules, ABS, body control modules…..you name it and if it has more than a resistor, it is impacted.

Check Engine light on Caddy. Same deal. If it takes a while, they will put some tires on a vehicle jacked up and sitting on Coke flats (only folks with many moons know that one). Driving the service area crazy…some of the “stock for replacement” inventory has been commandeered for new car production so electronic replacement items are getting scarce.

Crazy times…. Will post a sarcastic item on Diversions BANG

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Comments

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 3,491

    The supply shortages are widespread and real. Things like drums, pallets, caustic all on allocation or worse. Our lead times for shipping product to Asia have more than doubled. Prices are up 200-300% on pallets & drums. It’s nuts.

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 3,390PFN Referee

    I took a stroll through the lumber section at Home Depot the other day and was blown away. Plywood boards going for upwards of $100. Though you could get the "cheap" stuff for $60.

    I paid like $12 bucks a sheet a little over a year ago. I should have loaded up!

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 2,578

    I reserved a rental car for our upcoming trip to the NE- flying into Boston, taking the rental from Boston to Maine. $89 a day was the cheapest deal I could find. That’s crazy inflation- minimally a 250% price differential from what I have paid in the past.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    WOW…

    I drove a rental car or. “PUT” when I was in Alabama for 15 plus years….typically at least twice per month,

    It has been a while since I rented a car…2016 in Vegas. I think I paid $175 or so for a 10 day Rental there and got a full size car. Ironically, instead of the cheaper guys, I booked one through my old Hertz Gold account and the Hertz lady kept searching and since I had a Costco membership, that was what got me the rate. I have told a few friends and the Hertz Costco discount has saved them a bunch as well.

    This thread is turning out to be more bizarre than I thought it would be…

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    Thor Industries Now Has $14 Billion Order Backlog Amid Booming Demand For RVs

    SATURDAY, JUN 12, 2021 - 08:00 PM

    About two months after we discussed recreational vehicles are "on pace for a blowout year" and "sales just hit an all-time high," we got the latest confirmation from Thor Industries CEO Bob Martin. He spoke with Jim Cramer on "Mad Money" earlier this week about the manufacturer's massive order backlog. 


    Thor Industries — Airstream, Heartland RV, Jayco, Livin Lite RV, and others — first began to experience an uptick in sales after lockdowns ended in May and June 2020. Without a vaccine, people were too afraid to fly or stay in hotels or resorts, so they bought campers and traveled. The RV industry also saw a lot of first-time buyers, especially with the millennial generation. 


    The RV boom has left many dealers with limited inventory or even empty lots. Thor's backlog of orders is a whopping $14.32 billion as of late April, the company's latest filing said. That's up 32.5% from $10.81 billion at the end of January and up 550% from a year ago.

    Martin told Cramer in an interview on Tuesday evening that the company is "pretty much sold out for the next year" with new RV inventory already headed to customers instead of sitting on dealers' lots. 

    "We have backlogs that are full of retail orders, so those will hit the dealer's lot and then leave, and so we're still not able to build inventory at our dealer's lots," he said.

    Without the ability to build inventory at dealer lots, one would suspect an RV shortage for Thor brands is developing. 

    The virus pandemic rewired people's brains as they became more in touch with the outdoors and explored small towns and parks rather than big cities and resorts. 

    "Right now, we see this as a long-term trend, and if we get people in at an entry-level price and entry-level product, they grow throughout their lifetime," he said. "People trade every 3 to 5 years, but right now we're seeing it a little bit quicker, and we see this for a long runway."

    At the moment, the company's North American supplies are quickly dwindling to about 75,000 RVs last quarter, down from 106,000 in 2020, and well below 132,500 in 2019. 

    This seems like an RV shortage is in the making, which suggests that used RV prices should increase in price. 

  • 89BABS89BABS Posts: 103

    Basic economics - travel plummeted in 2020, and rental car companies sold off excess fleet capacities, and delayed ordering replacements. Covid-related chip shortages in the automotive supply chain results in fewer cars being built, which means with returned demand, higher prices for cars. Smaller fleets, more expensive cars, and now returned rental demand - it's a renters market.

    BTW, Chop, where in Maine are you headed? Business or pleasure?

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 2,578

    89BABS - what surprises me is that business travel hasn’t really come back so you’d think capacity wasn’t THAT stretched. I mean, I was expecting $40 or something, maybe $50. I mean what does this do to families who aren’t in good shape financially.

    We are going to Portland and Bar Harbor after a couple of days in Boston.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    Wonderful places to go. We have been traveling in that area since the late 90….about 4 short (5 days) and 5 long (10 days) trips. Way too much to see.

  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 1,391

    Interesting tidbit about rental car rates.

    I agree that basic economics is at the heart of it. I also wonder if there is a little less desire to be the low cost provider at this moment in time.

    Its like when the guy at the gym was complaining to the General Manager about the fact that complimentary towel service had yet to return. The GM hemmed and hawed when the guy said that he's paying for it. I looked at the GM and then the other member and let him know that he's also paying for all of those losses from last year.

    The GM got a nervous looking his face and I decided to end the conversation.

    Cutring costs and services helps, but sometimes prices need to rise to help cover those losses.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    Sort of “Supply vs Demand” scenario. DW was reading the stats on the National Park attendance. We have done Arches or two trips with multiple days each, You were encouraged to get in before 8:30 or so to get a parking place at the lot where you hike to the Arch. They NEVER closed off the park….only a small percentage do the hike…and that was in the Summer when heat was an issue.

    The Park now CLOSES the gates at 9:00 AM. Canyon lands has over a 2 hour wait. Zion was crowded when we were there in 2018….probably a zoo now….

    Even our Dukie pastor is renting a 34 ft gasser and doing a VT trip….and he has never, to my knowledge, even spent the night in a pup tent….

  • 89BABS89BABS Posts: 103

    Try visiting in January. After living in Raleigh for most of my adult life, we moved to Portland in 2013 (work). At first, it was great, but the potential 6-month long winters started to get old. When it snows on Thanks giving, and again on Easter, and most of the times in between, it gets old. Summers, however, are awesome - but living on the coast, central air would be nice.

    So, we're selling our house here, and buying a place in Arden, NC. When the dust settles by Labor Day, we'll be living in NC again. I'll be telecommuting 50% and keeping an apartment here for at least the next year. Retirement at the end of 2024 and permanent western-NC after that.

    We made a killing selling our house, enough so that I could probably pull the retirement trigger now - but there's a long term project (close the data center and take us 100% Cloud/SaaS) that I consider my swan song - the cherry on the top of the career sundae so to speak.

    But Portland and Bar Harbor are fabulous this time of year.

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 2,578

    Yeah. People are wanting to get out badly. It’s funny, we are simply trying to do what were doing during much of the pandemic - grab a beer (outside) at a local brewery and eat outside - and that’s durn near impossible.

  • whitefangwhitefang Posts: 158
    edited June 14

    Craziest supply chain/inflation/shortages issues I’ve ever seen and ever hope to see.

    Polyurethane foam on allocation since October ‘20 caused us to cut back to about 80% capacity until February ‘21 when the allocations dropped to 60%. Prices up nearly 70% and it was already my most expensive component averaging about 20% of my selling price. All this with orders through the roof - backlogs soaring to a year’s worth.

    Lumber even more insane. We had good contracts in place which kept us from the worst of the pain, but those end in 2 weeks and the new contract jumps 85%. Holy s4$&! But even then my contract would put me at less than half spot pricing BUT my contract allocation will only let me have half of what I need even with foam allocation. So spot running up to $1900 thousand sqft (OSB) on my main lumber rm. Compare to $300 msqft a year ago.

    While we manufacture (assemble) “domestically”, we source many raw materials and bring In subassemblies from our factories in VN and MX. Asian container prices are incredible and forecast to climb to unbelievable heights. We have a contract rate of $3,600 but haven’t gotten a “contract” container in about 8 weeks. None available. We’re getting spot rates between $9,000 and $18,000. Hearing the ceiling this fall could be $40,000.

    And of course labor is a whole ‘nother discussion. Wish I could pull the pin and count coupons. Not there yet.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    Seeking Alpha alert this morning…

    here is what WAS expected…

    Speaking of inflation: The Producer Price Index - which measures the average price changes received by domestic producers - is set to be published this morning. The index is forecast to have climbed 0.5% in May, while the core PPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, is also estimated to increase 0.5%. Stay on the lookout for retail sales data as well, which will also be released at 8:30 a.m. ET

    The above link from the BLS says 0.8% or only 60% above the forecast….ill winds ahead….

    White Fang,

    The part about the crazy storms and currents and ill winds around the “capes” from Voyage described what is happening all too well.

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 2,578

    Roo - the debate right now is between “transitory” and not-transitory. Now, Powell has never specified when “transitory” become not-so transitory.

    Wage inflation is good until the price passed to the consumer. When it costs $90.00 a day to rent a car? Can the regular Joe afford to take a vacation when it’s $200 a night for a crappy hotel?

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 3,491

    Wage inflation pretty much locks in inflationary pressure as soon as it gets passed on. That’s why companies are trying hard to go with signing bonuses and other one time incentives to get them past this stretch where they need to attract employees.

    Given that the stimulus payments were “transitory” you can make a decent theoretical case for transitory inflation. Wages are the stickiest cost there is other than depreciation. That’s the number to watch if you want to know how this is going to turn out.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    Transitory “USED” to have a different connotation

    It will be interesting to see how consumers spend. There was also a blurb about consumer spending dropping as the GuborMint had quit printing money for the stimulus checks

    The June “Child Credit” monthly payments will have a partial impact. The plan raised the $2,000 credit to $3,000 for over 6 children and $3,000 for 6 and over. That calculates out to a weighted average of 62% or so. 50% will be distributed on the next 6 months and the remainder for the 4/15/22 filing. Thus folks that depend on a high tax refund will still get what they had budgeted for and the excess will be distributed NOW

    I guess we see how it works out. But the shortages will just kick up prices ( NO ONE WOULD GOUGE) The price increases that were reported here and the ones I see at the grocery store or when I do a reorder from AMAZON ain’t in the CPI Fictional numbers. All one has to do is look at housing prices and compare to comp sales or the appraised values. We just got a “drive by” Home Equity appraisal when we renewed that rainy day pot and it is up 25% from Wake County’s 2020 revision

  • PIRPIR Posts: 144

    We are in Maine right now, near Acadia/Bar Harbor. Starting soon, several national parks, including Acadia, will start requiring reservations because of the high attendance. Thankfully we made it in before that started since we didn’t know anything about it. Pretty good number of people but not crazy yet. There were tons at Yosemite and Yellowstone two years ago when we went and it was fairly early in the season. I can’t imagine it with the Covid bump.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858
  • 89BABS89BABS Posts: 103

    While not quite Bar Harbor, Booth Bay Harbor is gorgeous too. And no matter what time of day, if you swing by the LL Bean in Freeport, you'll be impressed.

  • PIRPIR Posts: 144
    edited June 16

    We always go by the Bush compound.


    Thanks for the tip. We’re going to do that on the way to Boston on Friday.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    What I remember most…..and there were a lot of things that we had done as well as with the GK

    High Tea at a nice little Inn inside the park…3:00 tradition with the worlds best popovers.

    Carriage ride at sunset inside the park

    Kayaking on a lake near the edge of the park and watching the seaplanes take off

    The LL Bean “outlet” in Ellsworth. There were also several “lobster” houses about halfway from Ellsworth to Bar Harbor.

    Ray Murphy still has, I think, a chainsaw shop north of .Ellsworth. I went to one of his daiky shows in 2009 and he picked me out of audience (I had bought 2 carvings earlier in the day) snd carved my initials in a wooden belt buckle,,,,that was unforgettable…

  • RickRick Posts: 2,980PFN Referee

    I need to buy a third car as I am giving the old one to my son. But prices are insane. Not sure what to do. I guess I should have bought last year.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,858

    From the Seeking Alpha morning update…

    There's never a dull day when Jerome Powell comes to town, with the market hanging on to his every word from the public square. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its expectations for inflation considerably, saying the headline figure could reach 3.4%, marking a full percentage point higher than its forecast in March. While Powell still feels the price pressures are "transitory," it may now take some comforting numbers to reassure investors. 


    Interest rates: The central bank also brought forward the time frame on when it will next raise rates. The so-called dot plot of individual FOMC member expectations pointed to two hikes in 2023, after Powell said in March that he saw no increases until at least 2024. Stocks slumped yesterday in reaction to the news, but rallied off their intraday lows after the Fed Chair said the projections should be "taken with a big grain of salt."


    Stock futures slipped further overnight, with the Dow and S&P 500 down 0.4%, respectively, and the Nasdaq off by 0.6%. Meanwhile, bond yields headed higher after the press conference, while bitcoin sold off, but both have pared much of their recent moves. Interestingly enough, traditional inflation hedge gold tumbled as far as $1,835/oz on Wednesday and fell another 3% overnight to the next support level at $1,800.


    Taper talk: Powell did not issue guidance on when the central bank will begin tapering its bond-buying program, though many speculate that could come at Jackson Hole in August. "You can think of this meeting that we had as the 'talking about talking about' meeting, if you'd like," Powell said when asked about tapering. "I now suggest that we retire that term, which has served its purpose." The FOMC also disclosed it would extend dollar-swap lines with global central banks through the end of 2021, which was one of the last COVID-era programs the Fed undertook to stabilize world markets.

    Rick,

    Each has to do what makes sense. I do not regret purchasing my GS, whom funded half of the cost, a car last April, 2020. All I can advise is to go “low end”, as in if you select a brand and a model, then get the entry level that might not have all the super Gee Whiz electronics ….such as a high end entertainment center. We have owned 3 Maxima’s snd been satisfied, we found a plain Jane with cloth seats and standard radio. It had a phone jack audio input. My GS has never played a CD or listened to the radio. He uses the family plan Amazon music.

    I am picking up DW’s 14 Caddy ATS today after it had a $650 emissions sensor go out . Only 41K on it and if it had happened in January, would have been covered under extended warranty. That warranty saved me over $12K, mostly electronics and such.

  • RickRick Posts: 2,980PFN Referee

    I always go low end but this time my wife is insisting on leather seats.

    I guess I need to figure out what I am going to do.

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