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NC State men's basketball @ UVA

ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,675PFN Referee

Wednesday at 6:30 PM will bring us round two of the home and home with UVA. The Wolfpack have won 3 in a row on the road in ACC play for the first time in a long time. Somehow getting to four in a row would probably be the first time since V.

It'd also be nice for the Wolfpack to get a quality win. NC State is currently 0-6 against Q1/Q1a competition, so any NCAA tournament is gone barring a miracle ACC tournament run. At the same time, getting a win against one of the league's better teams would do wonders for the Pack's confidence.

UVA on the other hand has a lot to play for. They enter the game 15-5 (11-3) but on a two game skid. They got blasted by FSU 81-60, and then lost in Cameron to Duke on Friday by 1. It's been over a year since the Wahoos have had a three game skid, and I am sure they view the Pack as a nice "get well" opponent. It'd be nice to end the season with some momentum headed into the offseason.

The NC State's coaching staff has a lot of recent game tape on how to beat the Wahoos. FSU scorched the nets going 13-24 (54%) from the 3 point line. They paired it with winning the battle of the boards 31-25 and turned it over only 5 times vs UVA's 13. FSU was locked in, much like they were when they demolished the Pack in Tallahassee. UVA just ran into a buzz saw, much like they did Gonzaga earlier in the season.

The Duke game was a bit closer. Matthew Hurt went 5 for 8 from the 3 point line, and Duke forced more UVA turnovers than they committed. Watching the game, Duke sped UVA up heavily in the first half on the way to 39 points and a half time lead. The second half was played more to UVA's liking and Duke only scored 21 points in the first 16 minutes of the second half largely because they were stuck in a half court game.

The good news for the Pack is that its recent success has been largely tied to using a larger line up featuring Seabron paired with an increased sense of urgency and pace. Going big should help on the boards (the Pack outrebounded UVA the first game), but more importantly Seabron is a one man coast to coast fast break. An increased pace should help the Pack get some easy buckets without playing against UVA's set defense.

The Cavaliers won the first game at the free throw line where they shot 20-22. It was a complete outlier on the season for UVA as they went to the line on 53% of their offensive shots. To put things in perspective, UVA went to the line on 3.6% of their shots against Clemson, 4.1% of their shots against GT and 6.3% of their shots against lowly Towson State. UVA isn't a team that gets to the line (currently 342nd out of 347 teams nationally), unless they're playing NC State.

Looking at the box score gives one an indication of why -- TV Teddy was on the whistle. Grudges die hard. Someone really needs to look into this officiating thing.......

The Pack CAN win this game, but it will take a lot of focus, pushing the pace relentlessly and a fair whistle. I suspect UVA will be locked in, and give the Pack their best effort. The computers like UVA by 8 points and give the home squad an 83% chance of winning.

Poll time...
  1. Who wins?17 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack in an upset
      17.65%
    2. UVA Cavaliers complete the season sweep at home
      82.35%
  2. Which team ends up with more rebounds?17 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
      52.94%
    2. Virginia Cavaliers
      47.06%
  3. Which team shoots more free throws?17 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
        5.88%
    2. UVA Cavaliers
      94.12%
  4. Can NC State score 40 in one of the two halves?17 votes
    1. Yes
      17.65%
    2. No
      82.35%
  5. Which team turns it over more?17 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
      64.71%
    2. UVA Cavaliers
      35.29%
  6. Will Valentine's day come again for UVA?17 votes
    1. Yes -- Swoff's got only a few remaining games to smite NC State
      52.94%
    2. No -- Carolina might need the help playing against Marquette that night
      47.06%
«13

Comments

  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 1,210

    I have no illusions of winning, but I'm curious to see whether our level of discipline on both ends of the court is what it needs to be to stick around a team like Virginia.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,090

    UVA be lean and hongry sayeth a bard. They gonna avenge their embarrassment. Computers should not be used for betting the spread

    if under 10, ecstatically happy

    if over 20, then fire up the kettle and pluck the Canadian honkers. IT AINT gonna be pretty

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 4,367PFN Referee

    They're gonna fuck us, and fuck us hard. There will be no reach-around (yes, that is a Full Metal Jacket allusion).

  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 638

    Wowzas

    But accurate

    we lose, we lose bad

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 2,219

    Rye - that’s great information on the officiating. In the past, love her or hate her, Debbie Yow would have been on the horn the entire day. Alas, I imagine Boo has bigger plans than AD @ NC State, which possibly include a stop in Greensboro with ultimate kush job, so I imagine this went unnoticed or minimally, a “you know I have to do this”.

    It’s standard fare in this conference and why I no longer watch our basketball games when something is on the line. I honestly have no clue if it’s me or if we really are being royally screwed over, but it’s ruined watching NC State basketball live for me.

    I was able to enjoy watching basketball Saturday through Monday thanks to our blowout win over Wake.

  • We seem to get a "where'd that come from?" type win every year from the male Pack hoopsters and what the heck, might as well be this one!

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,090

    Don’t disagree that Boo, as well as many of us, have or had aspirations for broader responsibilities and commensurate salaries. But Boo is actually older or slightly so than the new Commish, who’s name escapes me. The current commish also had, to me, a better resume and background. I suspect that Boo understood that he was not inline for a Commish job, especially the ACC, even with his DNA.

    Not to say that Boo will not be tapped to head up another league or a similar position in Indianapolis....

  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 1,033PFN Referee

    Most around here probably remember two years ago, when State's NET was in the 30's while going 0-fer in Q1A and ended up in the NIT. So what does that experience tell us about the bubble teams for this year?

    Short Answer - Don't know. Two year's ago, State's OOC SOS was the weakest in all of Division 1. So it's hard to say which metric had the bigger effect. I've long since concluded that the Selection Committee intentionally punishes bubble teams for weak OOC schedules. We could argue about which metric (SOS vs Q1A record) means more to the Selection Committee. But there's no doubt that when both suck, that team is in trouble.

    In order, here is the OOC SOS (from www.warrennolan) for the three highlighted teams: 125,52,157 These SOS are probably not weak enough to warrant any extra punishment, but are certainly not good enough to impress the Selection Committee.

    Here are the six ACC teams (and seed) that Bracketville currently has in the NCAAT:

    3) FLORIDA STATE; 4) Virginia; 5) Virginia Tech; 7) Clemson; 8) North Carolina; 9) Louisville

    GT and Duke aren't in FFO or NFO.

    (I don't think that it's easy to make a case for L'ville over GT or Duke)

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 3,199

    We have to participate in two incredibly unlikely streaks simultaneously to win against UVA. Our best chance to pull that off is to rebound really well and fill it up from 3 point land. For some reason I’m not optimistic on this one but a win would get us to 7-8 in league play and keep hope alive for a .500 conference record.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,675PFN Referee

    VA: Nice one! I think that Duke's playing their way in. They're on the upswing and I base this on having watched them a few times recently.

    The Cards are playing their way out. Clemson's early results probably save them, but I suspect they lose their first game.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 4,367PFN Referee

    Yeah, put both Blues into the dance, and I likely will boycott it (just like I did the NFC Championship Game and Superb Owl, for similar OMG!!!11111 Narrative reasons).

  • Pack78Pack78 Posts: 550

    Many of us boycotted the Superb Owl-read that it was the lowest-rated SB in 52 (!) years...

  • RickRick Posts: 2,731PFN Referee

    I haven't watched an NCAA tournament game since maybe Gott's first couple of years.

    It is a farce.

  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 1,210

    If Duke thinks that they won't make the tourney, I wouldn't be surprised if they preemptively opt out.

    Also, given the way they are playing, I wouldn't be surprised that they make it.

    This season has been messed up due to Covid. In principle, does it make sense to alter the selection process or leave as is?

    I realize bowl game selection was a free for all, but that is a different animal.

    I would be fine with a different process or format, but I don't think anyone in charge at the NCAA is actually capable of pulling it off and doing it well.

    Stuck with the status quo

  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 1,033PFN Referee
    edited February 24

    In principle, does it make sense to alter the selection process or leave as is?

    I've thought about this and your personal opinion will come down to what you think about the "standard" selection process and what specifically you would like to see changed. In my view, the process generally comes down the assumption that good teams would prove that they deserve that "title" by beating other good teams. From time-to-time, I find examples that make me question the decisions made by that year's committee...but I'm generally happy with the overall selection process.

    It is important to note that my examples of questionable decisions are far fewer than those that the talking heads whine about. If your only exposure to the selection process was the whining on Selection Sunday, you will likely have a far different view of the selection process than mine. Claims of inconsistent decision-making and behind-the-back deals run rampant, but are generally without any support.

    I say all of that to say that I expect the overall process to be identical to previous years. Your NET ranking gets you discussed (or not). Who you beat determines your post-season destination.

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 3,158PFN Referee

    If Duke thinks that they won't make the tourney, I wouldn't be surprised if they preemptively opt out.

    That's hilarious. We should probably do the same thing lol.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 4,367PFN Referee

    hey, seems as long as we keep making all our 3s, we can has win??

  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 444

    Good hustle, BB

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,090
    edited February 25

    Keys to the game...

    Play 13:30 and NO FOULS on NCSU. 2 on UVA. Maybe a total of 7 propulsion for the whole game....OK , 9.

    Hit 3’s and play like a “devil” on D. Opps, a single digit lead... but UVA saved us...now 3 whistles on the lads in home whites.

    Has to be HMBC KK’s foot ware choice...

    WHEN have we played 16 minutes without a whistle?

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 530

    STATE playing well hopefully they can keep it up. UVA looks beatable for now. Let’s hope KK doesn’t tighten up in the 2nd half and is ready for Bennett’s halftime adjustments.

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 530

    Did I miss something? Where is Thomas Allen?

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,090
    edited February 25

    Must be in the Twilight Zone. BUT, I’ll take it...

    Last TICK a shot....banks in. Jimmy V might be in the house...

  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 444

    Please, God

  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 1,150

    W

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 3,090

    God, Jimmy V, Sloan....whoever helped....

    THANKS to,the Team, the Coaches, the additional help, and the REFS...

    Call in the order for ice cream. I’ll BUY.

    OH MY. We pulled it off...

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