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NC State vs. Duke at men's basketball

ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,675PFN Referee

Well the world of basketball in 2021 is interesting. NC State (8-8) is playing a game against a Coach K coached team that is entering the game at 7-8 and is on a 3 game losing streak. That's right.......... It's February, Duke's got a losing record and Coach K is going to actually seemingly have the losses on his record. Hmm.

We know about State, but what about Duke? On offense, they're the 21rst most efficient team nationally, but I wouldn't classify them as a great shooting team (34.3% from 3 and 71.5% from FTs). They also turn the ball over more than normal, coming in right at the national average rates.

What stands out though is that they do not get to the line -- ranked at 341rst nationally in their offensive free throw rate. While Duke's been a jump shooting team for years, they've often gotten an overly friendly whistle. Their games this year really come down to the line. In games they've shot more free throws than their opponents, they've won all but one. In games they have not, they've lost them all. Lowly Pitt muscled their way to 37 free throw attempts against the Devils and a 2:1 FT attempt ratio.

The perpetually young Blue Devils have struggled defensively since switching to the one and done model. Duke's defense this year is giving up 39% 3 point shooting against all opponents which is 329th nationally. Teams get looks so open that they're making them. They're also fouling (as mentioned).

Duke's mostly playing a 6 man rotation with spot duty for three more. Their impact players are:

  • Matthew Hurt: The 6 ft 9 sophomore forward is Duke's best offensive player. He shots 61% from 2, 40% from 3 while averaging 17.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
  • DJ Steward: The 6 ft 2 freshman averages 13.1 points and 4.3 rebounds a game. He's score 10 or more in 10 out of Duke's last 11 games. He's 85% from the line and 36% from 3.
  • Jeremy Roach: The 6 ft 1 freshman averages 9.7 points and 3 assists per game. He's coming in hot though having scored 16 points in two straight games.

The game plan is pretty simple for the Pack:

  • Initiate the offense inside out. Get it down in the paint, or drive it hard to the basket (ah la Pitt) and Duke will foul. If they don't, there likely is a good look on the perimeter.
  • Don't foul on defense. Duke's not winning without help at the line.
  • Keep a spy on Hurt at all times. He's the one person on Duke's roster that will stand out as the best player on the floor. JimmyV would have played box and 1 or diamond and 1 on this Duke team.

The computers like the Pack by 3, and give State a 61% chance of winning.

Poll Time
  1. Who wins this battle of .500 squads?16 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
      25.00%
    2. Duke Blue Devils
      75.00%
  2. Who shoots more free throws?16 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
      18.75%
    2. Duke Blue Devils
      81.25%
  3. Does State keep Hurt under 15 points?16 votes
    1. Yes
        6.25%
    2. No
      93.75%
  4. Can NC State shoot over 40% from 3?16 votes
    1. Yes
        6.25%
    2. No
      93.75%
«134

Comments

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 4,367PFN Referee

    All my votes is negative.

    I was on campus for Most Glorious Pete Gaudet season. We actually swept the Devils, and managed to NOT finish last! After the home win, I stepped onto the court and yelled "We're number 8, baby!"

    Security guy said "get off the court" and I politely obliged.

    Naturally, we got hammered in the LRI against those same Dukies. But it technically wasn't the "8-State" game that time.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,675PFN Referee

    BJD: I was right behind K's bench in Reynolds the following season when a friend yelled "hey K, how's your back?" The Rat was none to happy about that one. My buddy kept giving K the business all night in typical Reynolds fashion.

    Unfortunately, K got the last laugh. The "0-4 in the ACC" Blue Devils went the length of the court in about 2 seconds for layup as time expired to win by a point. Les was snake-bitten.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 4,367PFN Referee

    oh, I was there in that Gaudet year, heavy bidness was given. I got Doug Collins to turn around and look at me. I gave him the finger.

  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 1,210

    We seem to be able to beat Duke occasionally when they're playing well. Given they're playing poorly this year, I'm calling this a trap game. LOL.

    I don't feel good good about this one at all.

  • This may be the one that gets Dook going to the point of making the tournament. I just watched geriatric Tom Brady win his 50th super bowl (well actually I didn't watch much of it but I know the outcome). By the same token I refuse to believe this will be the year that Dook's 24 year streak of making the tournament ends.

  • RickRick Posts: 2,731PFN Referee
    edited February 13

    I haven't watched a Duke game since that game we were leading and then at half the refs got all our best players in foul trouble. It was so obviously a fix I decided to never watch another.

    Not worth it

  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 1,033PFN Referee

    4 pm on ESPN.

    I would have added the time/network to the thread title, but the last time that I did that I lost 'Roo's poll. Does anyone know how to edit the OP without losing the poll?

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 4,367PFN Referee

    Rye - IIRC, it was my least favourite Dookie (ok, after Laettner) who made that layup - Chrissie Collins.

    Naturally, aside from Gaudet (hey, where'd ya get that suit, K-Mart?), Collins was the focus of my shit talking. Collins was REALLY bad that dumpster fire season, and I got my entire section (behind the Duke bench/parents) chanting shoot! shoot! shoot! every time he got the ball. Then aaaawwwwww!! when he inevitably passed it.

    He finally made a basket late, with State comfortably ahead. Our little group went crazy cheering it.

  • Even though we're horrible and won't win this game, it's been fun seeing all these teams with HOF coaches and rosters chock full of 5 and 4 stars get owned repeatedly this season. Dook and Tucky in particular.

  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 639

    LOL we all voted against the pack in every question and this room is usually full of optimists. I actually think we're the better team and should win. I also have been around for 42 and 2/3s years.

  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 639

    BTW Wake competing against a FARRRRR superior FSU club with a roster full of D2/3 guys and a first year who the f*ck is this guy head coach. We NEVER over achieve....ever. Quite the opposite

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 530

    Well I'm here settling in for what I expect to be a big disappointment but the State fan in me won't let me ignore it.

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 3,199

    Took us a while, but we’re clicking now

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 530

    Well I guess the big goofy white guy is going to single-handedly beat us......again.

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 3,199

    I’ve seen a lot of Rec league teams that play more fundamentally sound than we do.

  • OldMan94OldMan94 Posts: 126

    We look like a$$. Back to more productive activities.

  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 639

    I have tuned in due to the crappy weather situation here. I'm actually pulling for more turnovers than points. Right now we're at 12-9.

    We are sucky suckerson

  • PackzingoPackzingo Posts: 185

    We are just what a crappy Duke team needed!

    WOW, we stink more and more as the season progresses on!

  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 639

    I detest the fact Coach K is allowed to non stop every fucking game stay in a ref's ear, meanwhile any coach not K is scolded at the first question asked.

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 530

    I really think Keatts has lost the team, they don't even look interested to be playing. Jerricole on the floor trying to get the ball and EVERYBODY just standing around, not a single person went to try to help him out. That's just lack of effort.

  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 444

    Blade Runner: The Final Cut is on Hulu, in case anyone's looking for a diversion.

  • PackzingoPackzingo Posts: 185

    Agree... I think KK has lost them!!

    They look as bad as any team that Les ever put on the floor and Les had So So much less talent!

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 3,199

    Atrocious

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 530

    Hey at least there are no fans to walk out early.

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 530

    Did ya'll know Carolina was playing Virginia tonight?

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