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NC State men's basketball home vs. BC

ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

After the Christmas gift that the WolfPack gave all the good little boys and girls, can they follow it up with a pre-New Year's celebration at home against the BC Eagles? If so, the Pack would start 2-0 in ACC play for the first time under KK. Those two wins could be huge given how many games might potentially get canceled with COVID19. While not looking ahead to an outcome, I bring this up because it's a pretty important game for the Pack. If State's taking the next step as a program this season, a surprise win against UNC cannot be squandered with a home loss to BC.

BC is a bit of an enigma, and has played better ball than their 2-5 record might suggest. In their first game, they led at half and gave Villanova all that they could handle until they ran out of gas at about the 8 minute mark. In the ACC/Big10 Challenge, they lost in overtime to Minnesota. They've also gotten smoked by Florida (20 points) and Syracuse (38 points). Will the Pack see the team that thinks they can play with anyone, or the team that shot 8-31 from 3 against the Cuse?

Jim Christian is still coaching BC. While there was some rumbling that they might fire him after last year, BC retained Christian. Given what COVID19 is doing to athletics departments across the country, that was probably a wise financial move. Only 25 wins in the ACC in 6 seasons doesn't offer a lot of promise, but if you're Christian, you remember BC's win against the Pack in Chestnut Hill last year as a reason for optimism. I'd argue you're also playing with house money anyway.

When looking over BC as a team, there's not much to say that they do well. Their effective FG defense is 302nd nationally, and that's because opponents make 58% of their 2 point shots (which is 313th nationally). Virtually everything else defensively is mediocre to bad, which you'd expect when you realize that St. Johns, Syracuse, Florida and Minnesota averaged scoring 94 PPG on the Eagles.

On offense, BC's decent inside but doesn't rebound or shoot FTs well, so it's not like they're a team that can wear you out pounding the ball inside. BC prefers to shoot the 3 ball, and have taken 47% of their shots from beyond the arc this season. They're not that good at it as they've shot at or below 33% from three in 5 out of 7 games.

The Eagles are going to play 8, and no one player has averaged over 26 minutes a game on the season. I can hear Dan Bonner now saying over and over how Boston College has "incredible balance with five players that average 10+ ppg."

The game plan seems simple for the Pack -- pound the ball inside on offense and wear BC out. Normally against a team that likes to shoot the three, I would say to run them off the line, but a blow out loss to Syracuse (where BC shot 8-31 from 3) suggests a more passive strategy might be better. Given the Pack's spotty defensive rebounding, BC's best chance to stay in the game is to get second chance points. The Pack can lay back a bit and force BC to beat them from the three.

The computers like the Pack by 13 points.......

Poll time....
  1. Game results? (winner)15 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
    2. Boston College Eagles
  2. Is DJ back?15 votes
    1. Yes
    2. No
  3. Will BC shoot over 33% from the 3 point line?15 votes
    1. Yes
    2. No
  4. Will NC State win the battle of the boards?15 votes
    1. Yes
    2. No


  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 3,899PFN Referee

    I'm interested to know which computer model you're using for these point predictions? If I remember correctly it had us as 3 point winners against UNC.. and well..... that was a pretty good guess! The Vegas line was UNC -1.5 so a 4.5 point difference overall. I do imagine Vegas cleaned up nicely with that Pack win.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 5,423PFN Referee

    Oh yeah, I imagine there was a fuckton of moneys on the Holes.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee
    edited December 2020

    TAT: I shamefully use multiple sources to pull these write ups together. I wish I could tell you otherwise. Another NC State fan site just blindly takes the KenPom 4 factors and slaps them up (not sure how it's not a EULA violation given that site is clearly advertising and the writers are seemingly part of the "press" corp), but I'm actually trying to break things down a bit more and find the pertinent things from a match up perspective.

    I find basketball the most interesting technical sport that is popular in the US. It's why I rant so much on officiating because its is by far the biggest wild card and easiest way to artificially manipulate the games. I also had factual, first hand knowledge of the NBA officiating / gambling linkage years before it came out in the press, so I KNOW that part of the can be and is manipulated. If the officiating is clean, college basketball mixes the analytical beauty of baseball with an up and down sport where the combination of in game coaching and home crowd can be worth 7-10 points. For this sports nerd, there's no better game.

    I don't gamble on sports (stock market is enough) but am checking the predictive algorithms because I'll take the edge when it is time for brackets. You often only get the first game which definitely helps with that 5/12 or 8/9 match up, but if you have factors that you feel are important to filling out a bracket (like maybe you want a highly efficient 3 point shooting team, or a team with senior guards who are lights out at the line for late in the game), then the analytics can help you find those teams. Packi can tell you that I don't win our bracket game any more than those that just watch a lot of games (a couple of our friends are closet sports junkies who seemingly always have a game on), so there's clearly madness to the one and done college tournament that wouldn't play out the same way in a series based tournament like the pros have.

    So far I like the one I'm referencing this season better than the one I used last season. This season had the Pack beating Campbell by 19, beating the Holes by 3 and I am pretty sure had St. Louis favored. We'll see if it holds. In theory it should do better as the season progresses and there's more data.

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 2,820

    Rye - are these algorithms you have created or from another source? And yes, in basketball, officiating plays an absurdly huge role. When your position is “we are not perfect, but we are sure we aren’t biased”...well, that just tells you there’s little hope for improvement, and it sets the stage for devious back room behavior both in simple morality (giving one team an advantage over the other) and illegality (taking a financial stake in games you or your pards are officiating.)

  • RickRick Posts: 3,407PFN Referee

    Maybe I will watch some of this one.

    Jinx alert

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 3,899PFN Referee

    TAT: I shamefully use multiple sources to pull these write ups together.

    No shame in that! I very much enjoy your write-ups and the deep dives you provide.

    I had toyed with the idea of writing a script to scrape the Kenpom webpage and then in turn use that info to predict outcomes of whatever teams I input.. but on the other hand I believe a subscription where you could get that data is only like $20 bucks so I don't think it's worth the effort!

    As far as this game, I hope the Pack doesn't come out all barrel-chested thinking they're just going to roll BC after the UNC win. I want to see the team come out focused and playing with intensity.

  • Yes TAT but isnt that our typical MO? Every time we get ranked in either football or basketball, we come out the next game and get rolled. Scares me for the bowl game as well.

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    The mark of an educated man is not having the answer, but knowing where to find it.

  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 1,561

    Thanks for the write up.

    I watched a replay of the game. I guess it’s ok to lower your shoulder and drill a defender in the chest. Announcer “well he was in the arc”. Foul on Bates. Nice victory.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 5,423PFN Referee

    Merry Christmas, Imaginary Wolven Sort Friends!

    /looking forward to Black Sideshow Bob rejecting many BC gifts...

  • Pack78Pack78 Posts: 961

    Great to see ranking #'s by all three teams in the schedule above!

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    The thought passed through my head during my walk this morning that we beat the cheaters without Fundy. We have a shot at a really nice year.

  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 828

    You are exactly right especially considering Puke isn't that good either. I look for COVID to eventually shut down the season, screwing our potential success...again with the likes of Rat Face K leading the charge. (see previous sentence about Puke not being that good)

  • 44rules44rules Posts: 554

    So ACCX means online extra and not the ACC network, right? Rats...

  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 1,561

    ACCN is listed, dvring

  • 44rules44rules Posts: 554

    Got it. Thanks Fast.

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    ACCNX sometimes means RSN as well. I always check the guide on those games just in case.

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 759

    Fundy on the court warming up!!

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 759

    3-3 in first two mins, BC already burning the time out!

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    Immunity is in the game

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 759

    12-2 at first media time out, Fundy with 4 pts quickly. BC looks turrible

  • SaccoVSaccoV Posts: 113

    I think that was 'Impunity' Tex!

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 5,423PFN Referee

    If we start shooting, might win by 50

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    Hayes Moore combo in together again

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 759

    Bates to the locker room. Looked like a knee.

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