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NC State vs UNC in men's basketball

ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

We're past the "early season and we still have lots of hope" phase in men's basketball. Another site refers to "June" to describe exuberant preseason optimism in football, but I'm starting to see the same (at least with me) with men's basketball. So far for KK led NC State squads there are two seasons -- destroy the cupcakes and then come back to .500 against good teams.

Then there's UNC home or away and at Duke. After year one in which KK looked like he might finally break NC State's losing ways against the blues, NC State's talent level (and success against those two teams) has regressed. The games have since played out to script (if you're Swofford, Nike, ESPN, ACC officials looking for tendencies, etc.) with the occasional home win against Duke to keep things slightly interesting.

UNC has more talent and just beat (an albeit off) Kentucky. If you've not seen UNC, they look horrible one night (Iowa or Texas) yet still have most favored nation status. They ooze height, recruiting stars and athleticism and if they can't get it done, there's 3 extra team members in black and white stripes just waiting to help.

State has missed 2-3 weeks of games due to COVID19 protocol and has been playing without Hayes, Fundy and a full roster the last two games. In those games the Pack looked like it hadn't touched a basketball for much of 3 halves in a loss to St. Louis and a "we waited until the second half to show up" game against Campbell. If someone watched the Pack's shot selection, rebounding, offensive half court sets or seeming regression in conditioning, you'd think the whole team had had COVID19. And maybe they have?

I want to write a pre-game with an X, Y, Z plan to victory and rainbows and unicorns, but am struggling to. If State's without Fundy and Hayes, I don't feel good about what transpires Tuesday night, even at "home." Even with them back, how effective will they be without having played, and how much can Pack fans even expect out of Hayes in his first game against a decent team?

There is ONE thing that is clearly playing to the Pack's advantage this year against UNC and Duke. I firmly believe that the vibe around campus just before the UNC (and Duke) games negatively impacts the team. In most games the team is overly tight, gets down early and the zebras paired with a hostile away crowd finishes them off. Given the Pack is basically in a bubble and there's not the normal on campus hype cycle, maybe the team can treat it like "just another game" and just come out and play?

Even if that happens, I just see too many question marks for State in this one. Roy will have his gang playing their best game of the young season and KK will just be trying to figure out his rotation. Take the Holes with the points and if you watch, put the announcers on mute.

Poll time....
  1. Game results?18 votes
    1. State by 1 or more (any margin of victory)
      11.11%
    2. UNC by 1-10
      16.67%
    3. UNC by 11-20
      50.00%
    4. UNC by 20+
      22.22%
  2. Will Fundy and Hayes play?18 votes
    1. Yes
      38.89%
    2. No
      61.11%
  3. How many minutes will Bates play before he has four fouls?18 votes
    1. < 5
        5.56%
    2. 5-10
      38.89%
    3. 10-20
      50.00%
    4. 20-25
        5.56%
    5. 25+
        0.00%
  4. What will UNC's free throw advantage be?18 votes
    1. None... NC State will shoot more free throws, or it will at worse be even.
        0.00%
    2. UNC will shoot 1-5 more than NC State
        5.56%
    3. UNC will shoot 6-10 more than NC State
        5.56%
    4. UNC will shoot 11-15 more than NC State
      55.56%
    5. UNC will shoot 16-20 more than NC State
      22.22%
    6. UNC will shoot 21+ more than NC State
      11.11%
  5. Will NC State shoot over 40% from the 3 point line?18 votes
    1. Yes
      11.11%
    2. No
      88.89%
«13456

Comments

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    The best Owen Underground Party ever was the impromptu kegger after the 83 win in Reynolds over Dean (Double Technical) Smith and his band of cheaters. Alternate lyrics to Rock The Casbah being shouted in unison as the music blared.

  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 1,467
    edited December 2020

    Texpack,

    I should have dropped by but had already moved off campus. Anyway, the campus-wide parties got bigger and better later that season!

    Regarding this week's game, thanks for the write-up Rye. However, I don't have a feel for the game given the C-19 challenges already presented to the team and for the fact I haven't been able to watch all the games. Looking forward to see how the players will respond.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

    84: To me the young pups (plus Manny) have looked better than the vets for State. That’s good news for the future, but does not help us Tuesday.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 5,423PFN Referee

    I am with the polling majority except wrt Bates. If Black Sideshow Bob gets TEN WHOLE MINUTES before foul #4...well, I would be pleasantly surprised.

    Except it likely means the Holes are so far ahead that the refs feel no need to make it obvious.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

    BJD: I'm with you. Bates will have 2 fouls by about 8 minutes into the game. He'll sit the rest of the first half. He'll pick up his 3rd before the first TV time out of the second half. By then the game will be out of reach.

    I picked 10-20 minutes for four fouls, but the damage on the scoreboard will really be done with the quick ones early. I probably should have written the question differently to ask how quickly Bates will pick up the 2nd foul.

    I think where COVID has hurt this squad the most is with the interior rotation. This was supposed to be the year when we'd get away from 4 around 1 and be able to play two true big men (DJ and Bates together with Gibson and Dowanu subbing in), but that's not happening.

    But the macro trends that I put in the questions....... Well........ It's time for us to start calling this mess out given how predictable it is.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

    Looks like the game time has moved to 7 PM tonight.

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 3,901PFN Referee

    Thanks for heads up! I've been getting my info for the banners off of gopack website and they've been incorrect on a few details lately.. looks like I'll need to find a new source for the game info.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

    This changed yesterday seemingly. I think the Cuse/ND game got cancelled and we moved into the "more desirable" TV spot. With no fans in the stadium, it's all about TV.

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    This is correct. Set my DVR last night thinking I might do some shopping on the way home this evening. Luckily I’ve been summoning to the accounting office this afternoon so I’ll miss the traffic and make it home for the tip.

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

    The computers think we win by 3 tonight and give the Pack a 63% chance of winning. I think the computers don't understand that there's no home court advantage this year, that the Pack may not have all the players, that the Pack will be playing 8 on 5, and that Roy will have his team more motivated for this game than any all year.

  • What's a computer?

  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 828

    Are we still COVID short??? If so no way in hell I watch the game.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 5,423PFN Referee

    I forgot about the schedule and had already made plans. I am not bothered about changing same in the least.

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 3,901PFN Referee

    UNC only 1.5 point favorites.. time to load up on the Cheaters. Computers don't factor in the refs I suppose.

  • 44rules44rules Posts: 554

    Heels favored? Get the lube ready ...

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee

    It will likely be the easiest money on sports betting this year.......

  • Pack78Pack78 Posts: 961
    edited December 2020

    In the last four meetings against the Cheats we have averaged ~15 FT attempts; the Cheats ~30...tendencies!

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 3,298PFN Referee
    edited December 2020

    Mmmmhmmm... It is even more damning if you look at WHEN the fouls come and who they are against. We'll routinely have our best players in quick foul trouble early, while a guy like Garrison Brooks can thug for 80 minutes across two games against the Pack and only pick up 1 foul (which is what happened in the season series last year).

    Remember, Roy teaches his guys not to foul.........

  • RickRick Posts: 3,407PFN Referee

    I honestly do not know why you guys watch. It is a predetermined outcome.

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 3,901PFN Referee

    We are sick people for sure, Rick lol

  • still cannot point to the videoboard to "prove" it to the officials.

  • No Fundy this looks like it will be a track meet.

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    Good first four. Good DD so far.

  • Love the freshmans play so far. That second on DD was the typical ref BS

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 4,186

    Total BS call for Daniels second. We were plying too well. Had to stop the run.

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