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2020 College Football "Other games" thread

TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
Looks like season started yesterday with 2 games played.. multiple games postponed this week.. but more scheduled tomorrow.  I think ACC games won't start until next week.

Figure we get this thread up and rolling.. a small step towards normalcy around here.
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Comments

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    Hippo who you throwing $ on tomorrow?
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    Middle Tennessee @ Army at 1:30pm today.

    It's on CBS Sports Network.. may be buying YoutubeTV subscription again for this month...
  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 863
    Go Army
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    I abstained from Week 1 gambling.  Week 2, though...I have to start my thinking.
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    BJD,

    I'm not a gambler and I don't know how much you factor weather into your decisions.  Just in case you do and you haven't do so yet, you might want to consider the rain forecast for the second half of this week.  (Caveat:  of course, weather models are notorious for an increasing lack of accuracy away from the initial run-hour, especially in the days 4 to 7 time period.)  The two graphics below are from the NWS.

    By the way, links to the graphics which are updated at least daily are from:
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

    And the model forecast discussion giving the forecaster's reasoning can be found at:
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd.

    Rainfall for Wednesday evening (9/9/2020) through Friday evening (9/11/2020) issued at 10:55 AM EDT today (Sunday):




    Rainfall for Friday evening (9/11/2020) through Sunday evening (9/13/2020) issued at 11:03 AM EDT today (Sunday):




  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    Week 3 it is!  :smiley:
  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 863
    It’s not showing up in the current weather channel forecast at the beach.  40%, 20%, 40%.  Does this mean we are all going to drown down here this weekend?
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    Looks like you are part of that section above:  "weather models are notorious for an increasing lack of accuracy away from the initial run-hour, especially in the days 4 to 7 time period."

    More seriously, looks like the beach had lower rain chances.  But the latest weekend forecast has better chances than inland.  Here is the one from this morning for Thursday night through Saturday evening:


  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 863
    Numbers going up, 50% .  Pulling stakes Thursday early.  Going to aerate unless it’s a monsoon.
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 752PFN Referee
    edited September 9
    I guess that we could classify the coaching carousel into the "other games" group:

    In normal times, we’d have analyzed the coaching futures at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, N.C. State, Oklahoma State, Illinois and Arizona in the Power Five.

    Yahoo sports is guessing that financial impact from Covid will slow the firing of coaches because the schools either can't or don't want to pay the buyouts.

    https://sports.yahoo.com/the-one-certainty-in-college-football-financial-carnage-will-save-coaching-jobs-102643079.html

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    Technically, that helps us - since we were ALWAYS likely to sit on our hands.  At least our competitors will be doing the same.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    Also, Troll - I am glad to write up the Wakey footed ball contest, if you want/haven't already started drafting it.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    Also, Troll - I am glad to write up the Wakey footed ball contest, if you want/haven't already started drafting it.
    You're hired!  lol but seriously that would be awesome, man.  May you lead us to victory with that KH good good juju! 
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    I shall do my best!  Be up by tomorrow.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    Technically, that helps us - since we were ALWAYS likely to sit on our hands.  At least our competitors will be doing the same.
    I don't know if competitors doing the same helps or hurts us.  The status quo wasn't exactly great for NC State football last year.

    What might help all parties is if people realize the ridiculous contracts badly hamstring the schools.  Maybe COVID will teach the collective a bit more prudence in contract structuring?
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    The U played last night marking the start of "big time" P5 football. 

    Alea iacta est.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,845
    So, the “rustiness” factor that Miami faced versus UAB got me thinking. What if we come out flat or Wake is just sharper.

    Against P5 schools, we are:
    22-6 when winning @ the half
    1-4 when tied at the half
    1-27 when trailing at the half.

    Oof.
  • 89BABS89BABS Posts: 59
    choppack1 said:
    So, the “rustiness” factor that Miami faced versus UAB got me thinking. What if we come out flat or Wake is just sharper.

    Against P5 schools, we are:
    22-6 when winning @ the half
    1-4 when tied at the half
    1-27 when trailing at the half.

    Oof.
    In other words, we lose to P5 schools more than 1/2 the time.  Period.  (24-37 record)

    Considering most of those loses are against ACC schools ...  there's your "oof".
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,845
    It’s more his inability to adjust at the half that screams out to me. We have been ahead as much as we have trailed. We have led 28 games at the half, we have trailed 28 games at the half. We have been tied in 5 of those, yet he’s not close to.500.

    It’s a pretty amazing stat that in 28 times when we have been trailing, we have only found a way to win 1 game.  That one game was our best team versus a very bad Chapel Hill team @ home where we trailed by 2. 

    It screams that the head guy doesn’t handle adversity well and something is really off.
  • 89BABS89BABS Posts: 59
    choppack1 said:
    It’s more his inability to adjust at the half that screams out to me. We have been ahead as much as we have trailed. We have led 28 games at the half, we have trailed 28 games at the half. We have been tied in 5 of those, yet he’s not close to.500.

    It’s a pretty amazing stat that in 28 times when we have been trailing, we have only found a way to win 1 game.  That one game was our best team versus a very bad Chapel Hill team @ home where we trailed by 2. 

    It screams that the head guy doesn’t handle adversity well and something is really off.
    There's also the "plan's OK, but executes and adjusts poorly" factor.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,845
    Agree 100%. 
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    It speaks to a lot of things to me:
    - Some percentage of teams just out talent and out depth NC State.  They get ahead in the first half, jump out and don't look back.  State's outmatched.
    - Some percentage of teams State has more talent than.  State gets a lead and carries it through the second half.
    - When it's a "pick 'em" in the first half, we're not going to adjust in the second half and win it.  While it's only 5 games, an 80% outcome of an opponent winning doesn't look good.
    - Twenty percent of the time NC State will give up a halftime lead and lose.  Only 5% of the time will we reverse that script.  That's a 15% net delta.

    The difference in "tied at half" and "net delta in second half comebacks" suggest NC State football isn't that well coached within the course of a game.  It could also suggest that State just doesn't have the horses.

    To really understand if the issues are underlying talent, further analysis needs to be done.  Four things that would help would be:
    - Same stats against the spread
    - Same stats against the recruiting rankings (i.e. State was the team with more or less stars on the roster)
    - Same stats against the end of season power ranking and whether State finished higher or lower than the opponent.  Granted the result of the State game influences those rankings, it somewhat controls for the results within the game relative to all other games.
    - Same stats against roughly similar ACC teams like WF, BC, Syracuse, UNC, UVA and GT.  These are the middle tier teams where we roughly have similar talent and football pedigree.  This controls a bit for teams that have way more or way less talent and resources.

    A "plus" coaching staff would have the team doing better against the spread, against recruiting stars and against better/like teams based on the end of season power rankings or against similar ACC squads.  A "minus" coaching staff would do the opposite.

    My gut says we have a "minus" coaching staff, and I have thought that for years.  I'm sure some will come tell me about camping with Bill Belichick, NFL players that were 2/3 stars and seeds of greatness. 

    I tend to think you are what your record says you are.  In the case of DD, that's worse than MOC, TOB or CtC.  Like CtC, any success may have been largely correlated with a QB/OC.
     


  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,845
    Rye - one note on the spread..after a certain amount of time, the calculation of the spread takes into consideration coaching. 

    I look at his 2 best teams: 2017 and 2018. These teams had elite talent..(keep in mind in 2017 we had more guys drafted than Clemson.) What we saw was were teams that didn’t fair well against other talented teams on the road or neutral sites. These teams also let inferior squads hang around too long. 

    We have someone who excels at methodical preparation but struggles in game time decisions. Just like Bobby Bowden kids knew it, these guys do too. He’s similar to Sendek in his ability to prep but failure to grab the golden ring.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    Fuck, man.  SMU/TCU would have been decent Friday entertainment.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    Big Twaaaaaalve sure had a "Not Great, Bob!" start to their season.
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