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2020 Hurricane Season Thread

TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
Remnants of TS Amanda from the Pacific are forecast to become the third named Atlantic storm of the season. The earliest date on record for a third named storm. 

A bad hurricane season is when you get impacted by one.
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Comments

  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    edited June 2
    Texpack,

    That is so right.  In 1983 there were only four named storms.  The first one hit Galveston and Houston -- Alicia.  And it developed and made landfall within 72 hours.  Here is a reference:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Atlantic_hurricane_season
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    edited June 2
    New TD #3 in the Bay of Campeche:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

    If you are into model guidance (btw, really not good at this point):
    http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/

    If it develops into a TS or Hurricane, it will get a new name even though it had one in the Pacific basin.

    Stay safe down there!  I'm busy with getting hay cut, raked, and baled this week.  All hopefully before the rain hits again.  So my input during the day or early evening will be a bit sporadic until late this week.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,793
    edited June 2
    Never trust a TD with a C or K name in the Gulf.  Camille and Katrina come to mind.

    This may be the third wave of God or Mother Nature’s irritation.

    Coronavirus
    Riots
    Hurricane

    The AccuWeather link does not sound promising for the LA or TX Gulf Coast....

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-depression-forms-in-gulf-of-mexico-may-soon-become-cristobal/750223

    Don’t take my comments in any political or socioeconomic context.  This TD has some potential and if you look at the overall picture, there is nothing in the upper atmosphere, at least to a layman, to slow it down or steer it.  My takeaway is that if it keeps getting stronger, then at the least, it will be a major rainfall event....and no one can predict the other end of the spectrum...

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    We really needed some rain. We got 4-5 inches last week right after I got the fertilizer down so a TS would we raining on a soggy coastal area. 
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    edited June 3
    Here is the latest on Cristobal (4pm CDT/5pm EDT) from the Hurricane Center:


    Texpack, at the moment I'd say that you a re on the western edge of possibility of getting rain from this system.  Here is the image from the above link:




  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,793
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204127.shtml?cone

    This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time: 

    D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
    S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
    H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
    M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

    NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

    It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

    Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.


  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    I have zero confidence in path projections that include interactions with land. I’ll pay attention more closely after it gets back over the Gulf. In the mean time I’ll assume it’s making landfall in Matagorda. 
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    Cool thread, Tex.  Hopefully it doesn't get too much use this year!
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    Texpack is right.  As long as it is over land, the forecast projection is what I would call low confidence.  I've seen those things die out over the Yucatan.  I haven't had the time to spend on what is going on in the vicinity of the storm.  May take a look later this evening.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,793


    Batten down the hatches, ye swarly bunch of heathen’....that be a blow acomin’ and her name ain’t Monica


  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    I have found that the Hurricane Center's discussion can be helpful insight as to their forecasts.  Here is one from earlier this evening:


    You can find it at the top of this page:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    edited June 7
    Unless things change, it looks like Cristobal will probably be a TS at landfall.  See the discussion linked above.  That's not to say there are not life-threatening dangers.  Here are the latest key messages:


  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    It looks to be fairly fast moving which will help a lot with flooding along the coast. Pretty good outcome on this one. Headed to the Red Neck Riviera in three weeks so that’s the next watch period for me. 
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,793
    Field report.  Buddy is traveling back from Nahunta, GA (about 30 minutes EAST of Waycross).  He is loading his car and report that it looks like your basic "Frog Strangler".

    No further details on mandatory downloading of Ark plans for every family....
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    "Frog Strangler" -- I haven't heard that phrase since I lived on the Texas Gulf Coast.  Experienced a lot of those intense rain storms down there.
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    edited June 8
    If you are really into a tropical weather hazards outlook for a two-week period, here is a link to the global tropical hazards webpage from the Climate Prediction Center.  You can find the latest one-page graphic of the two-week forecast and links to related items to the forecast.  Note that the northern half of the country is not shown since this outlook is for the tropical/sub-troipcal areas of the globe.

    Briefings are done once a week and the slide show from the briefing is saved here:

    The latest briefing is listed at the bottom of the page.

    The following is the latest graphic:


  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    For you coastal and near coastal residents, here is a link from my favorite climate blog from UGA about hurricane insurance coverage:

    Or, if you would like to just go to the article cited in the blog, here is that link:
    https://money.com/hurricane-insurance/?xid=maropost
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    Tropical wave near Cuba expected to bring some rain to H-Town this coming weekend. We need the rain but the Gulf is warm (87-88) so it might turn into something. 
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    20 percent chance of developing as of 8pm (7pm your time) earlier this evening (Sunday).  Here is a link to the 5-day tropical weather outlook:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    edited July 22
    Texpack,

    Now the five-day forecast is up to 40 percent for the Texas coast, including your neck of the woods.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

    The water temperature is pretty warm, 30 to 31 C; while the ocean heat content is getting up there just west of the system.  See this link and click onto the "I" in the Gulf of Mexico (yep, the link to the "I" will age out in a day or so):  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

    The Hurricane Center is sending out a reconnaissance plane in the morning (Wednesday the 22nd) to check out the system.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    Saw the 40 percent number last night. We’ve already had about 3.5” of rain since Friday so it’s going to get pretty sloppy around here over the weekend. Early models have this headed into the middle of the Texas coast. That should maximize the rainfall here. I have an indoor project set up for Saturday😀
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    Wish we had some of your rain.  My part of the county is very dry.  Thunderstorms track across the north and south of us almost every day.  Even the weeds are drooping -- showing signs of heat and dry stress.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    Gonzalo headed into the Gulf right after the TD about to land at Port Lavaca. It is tracking through the sweet spot for landfall in SE Texas. When they shoot the gap between Cuba and the Yucatán it’s typically bad news for us. 
  • Pack78Pack78 Posts: 437
    Here in Union County we have had several afternoon/evening gullywashers in the last week-invariably with 10-15% rain chance predictions...
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 628
    Parts of Rockingham County received its 30 to 40 percent chance during the past couple of weeks.  There has been a lot of advertising (thunder) but at best only a few sprinkles here at our house.
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