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Would State have made the NCAAT?

Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 490PFN Referee
edited March 13 in Wolfpack Sports
I started to think about what to do with the Bubble if State lost to Duke.   So this is what I came up with even though it is a moot point now.

I started by taking the NET Top 80 and deleting those teams that weren't four games over 0.500
Then I went down the team sheets of each team and made a judgement call about that team's resume vs State's
Bad losses were only those in Q3/Q4
Q2 and SOS's were only used as a tie breaker

I created a third division and called it "Close" to cover those cases where I could see reasonable, intelligent people disagree on what things were most important.    In the "Close" category, I added a "push" category but only one team ended up there.

Team sheets can be found here:
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20March%2011,%202020.pdf

So here's the list of teams that I judged to be in better shape than State



That's 43 teams from 9 conferences that have a stronger or equivalent resume than State's.   So if we assume that the auto-bids for the nine conferences also had better resumes than State, then 34 of the 36 at-large bids are taken.

For completeness, here are the resumes that I judged to be inferior to State's (including all of the AAC and A-10 except for Dayton).




If I were doing this for Selection Sunday, I would have merged the Bracket Matrix seeds as well.   But since this was more or less a useless exercise, there was no reason to take longer than necessary.

My conclusion was that State would have ended up somewhere between the Last Four IN and the First Four Out without a win over Duke,
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Comments

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,030
    Dude!!! Take a stand :) ...seriously though, it probably came down to our performance vs Duke, Texas and TT. There’s something floating around that said we we’re LFI.
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 490PFN Referee
    The last sentence had a horrible, horrible typo that I just corrected.  
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,030
    And VaWolf. - thank you. Good work as always. Hopefully, we resume next year.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,191
    Curiosity.....IF Swoff had NOT pulled the pin and Duke would NOT have shown up (Mikey's decision), then Duke would have forfeited and we would have advanced.  Would that forfeit be included and work to our advantage....or just be footnoted and all the other data used?
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,607PFN Referee
    I bet footnoted is all.  But we would have had a significant rest advantage over the FSU/Clemson winner.

    Think that the rest of the bubble popping events likely punched our ticket, absent Duke showing up and beating us senseless.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,087
    Can’t remember who it was but one coach wanted the committee to at least seed the tournament as just making the tournament is an accomplishment for most programs. 
  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 712
    Wulfpack said:
    Can’t remember who it was but one coach wanted the committee to at least seed the tournament as just making the tournament is an accomplishment for most programs. 
    I believe it was Bobby Hurley.  Perhaps he has an incentive for "making" the tournament.  To KH's comment on the other thread, this blows up the Athletic budgets for a lot of schools.

    Wonder if Emmert dips into his reserves to help fill part of the hole.  I'd be shocked if he did
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 307
    Read somewhere that a lot of coaches and players wanted the tournament postponed, not canceled.  Think Gonzaga's coach was quoted.  Will try and post that link if I find it again.
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 307
    edited March 13
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,806PFN Referee
    Coaches get bonuses for automatic extension for making the Dance, so I am sure they wanted it seeded.

    I think we were in unless Duke beat us like a drum.  A lot of bubbles seemed to be popping.
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 307
    ryebread said:
    Coaches get bonuses for automatic extension for making the Dance, so I am sure they wanted it seeded.

    I think we were in unless Duke beat us like a drum.  A lot of bubbles seemed to be popping.
    The bubbles popping are over in Chapel Hill.  They are celebrating with champagne the fact the team didn't miss out on the NCAAT.  :-)
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,607PFN Referee
    You see, I pedantically think they DID.  Below .500, and their conference tourney loss counted.

    That said, looking like God really didn't want Liverpool winning the Premiership!
  • Wolfblood86Wolfblood86 Posts: 390

    Given the numbers as of today or yesterday when everything got cancelled, I think we are in. But there are too many unknowns like tournament bid stealers and other bubble teams that didn't get to play or continue to play.

    I think it is pointless to even release the "what could have been" tournament bracket. I don't think it is fair to the teams that were on the bubble and didn't get a chance to make their cases. We might have kicked Duke's butts yesterday like we did the first time. Who knows?

  • jppackattackjppackattack Posts: 415
    We totally would have won the thing! Somebody get that banner hung! BTW, how stupid (IMO) to award the criminoles the ACC tournament championship. Regular season sure, but tournament champions? Did I hear that correctly?
  • ...how stupid (IMO) to award the criminoles the ACC tournament championship. Regular season sure, but tournament champions? Did I hear that correctly?
    Really?  Who else you gonna give it to?  Normally the ACC Tournament winner is the conference champion.  In the absense of a way to actually determine the championship, why not give it to the regular season champion?  They earned it more than anyone else did.
  • MikePack89MikePack89 Posts: 146
    For what’s it worth, projected bracket has us in as 11 in Dayton playing UCLA.  

    Speaking of which, know what happens when you clear the smog in SoCal?  UCLA 😂
  • MikePack89MikePack89 Posts: 146
    ...how stupid (IMO) to award the criminoles the ACC tournament championship. Regular season sure, but tournament champions? Did I hear that correctly?
    Really?  Who else you gonna give it to?  Normally the ACC Tournament winner is the conference champion.  In the absense of a way to actually determine the championship, why not give it to the regular season champion?  They earned it more than anyone else did.
    I was appalled they gave it to FSU.  Yes regular season champs but how often does reg season win the tourney?  No tournament = no winner, simple
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,607PFN Referee
    Nah, if not for the Hole genesis, I see there is some merit/value in finishing 1st over 20 games.  I very much agree that hoops is a tournament sport - and that should be the only "champion."

    But in exigent circumstances like these?  Since the full conference slate was played - Florida State absolutely should be called ACC Champions.

    Funny that for once when the regular season is indeed determinative, U*NC finished Dead Fucking Last!
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,087
    It doesn’t bother me that it was handed to FSU. It was such a surreal situation - kind of hard not to when FSU is warming up about to tip-off. 
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,087
    The NCAA is weighing the release of the bracket as coaches are lobbying for it. 
  • So....get all those people who determine who makes the tournament in a room and let them hash it out, as per normal?  So much for social distancing.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,087
    So....get all those people who determine who makes the tournament in a room and let them hash it out, as per normal?  So much for social distancing.
    I doubt they do it that way now. 
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,607PFN Referee
    You could easily do an online meeting for that.
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 490PFN Referee
    The Selection Committee frequently awards brownie points for reg season championship.    I ignored that for this exercise.   Being the tallest midget isn’t worth much to me.  
  • jppackattackjppackattack Posts: 415
    Didn’t expect my comment to be so polarizing. FSU earned the regular season title. They didn’t earn the tournament title. Unless I missed them making it through all rounds and beating another team in the championship game.
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