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Bubble Eval (3-9)

Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 753PFN Referee
edited March 9 in Wolfpack Sports
If you take a US map and draw a line from below Richmond to below Chicago, then there is not much to the NE of that line that I ever wish to see again.    Thus something has gone horribly wrong with the master plan, because that's where I find myself for work.    So I don't have as much time as I would like, but I did scratch out enough time to do the various sorts for you all to provide most of the discussion.


DISCARDS



There are several teams here who could go 2-1 in their conference tourney and move themselves out of the automatic discard pile....but it doesn't look like anyone thinks very much of these teams.


AUTO BIDS



I tried to highlight the teams that finished first or tied for first in the regular season.   We've already been discussing the American, but there could be other bid stealers highlighted below.....N. Iowa for example.


2+ Q1A WINS

Sorted by NET



UCLA and Texas have a new friend at the bottom of this table....Oregon St.    I don't have time to go back and look, but I would guess that Ore St has finished on a little winning streak to get to the magical four games over 0.500.   Personally, I'm pulling for Ore St to go 1-1 in the Pac 12 conference so that I can see how the Selection Committee treats a team with a poor OOC schedule but some big wins.

Most of these are uncontroversial, but the bottom three might give some insight into how the Selection Committee evaluates teams with plenty of big wins, but enough losses to tank their NET ranking.


THE TOUGH CHOICES

Sorted by Q1A wins, then by Q1 wins, then by NET:



Had to edit the following at 3:30pm on Monday.   Sorry.

Utah St should not be in this table and San Diego St should be in the 2+ Q1A table.    Thus we only have 12-15 bids left for this last table.

If you go back to this entry, you will see that the bar for an at-large bid is set very low for those teams that finished at least tied for their regular season championship.   Tulsa's rank is lower than any at-large bid has ever had, so we obviously want them to get stomped as quickly as possible in their tourney (along with Wich St).   I assume that N. Iowa and Cincy will get an at-large bid even though I don't think that they've earned it.    Now we are down to 10-13 bids left.

If you sort by Q1 wins first and then by Q1A wins, State would drop about five places.   But I'm going to assume that Q1A wins are much more important when slicing through the last few bids.   While it's certainly possible for a few teams to jump past State with a big conference tourney win, there are only so many conferences where that big win is a possibility.   (Side Note - If UVA finishes in the Top 40, that would be a Q1A win on the road for State.)

So who is guaranteed from this table?   I pick Iowa, Marquette, OU, L'ville, Auburn, Florida, LSU (last two because of overall SOS).    Which leaves only three to six at-large bids left.    I need to look at Stanford and USC more closely, but they could easily be guarantees as well....which would leave only 1-3 bids left.

So the bottom line is that State's position is not as good as I thought when I started this little exercise.    I would guess that 1-1 in the ACCT puts State into consideration, but no guarantees.   2-1 would give the guarantee that we're all looking for.
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Comments

  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 753PFN Referee
    Road games against the Top 40 count as Q1A wins.   But as we all know from last year, there is a possibility for teams in the Top 40 that won't get an at-large bid.    Thus some few Q1A wins won't mean as much as I'm assuming here.

    My focus is to work on a simple but accurate approach.   But Life isn't always that kind.
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 753PFN Referee
    edited March 9
    Apologies to Utah St.     They get the auto bid for the Mtn West and not San Diego St.   That means that there are only 12-15 bids for the last table.

    So I re-did the last section after finding the Utah St mistake and changed my final conclusion in that the NIT is not as far away as I thought last week.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    edited March 9
    I think we have ZERO chance if we lose to Pitt/Wake.  Maybe 20-25% chance at Dayton if we lose to Duke.

    Beat Duke, we are 100% in and avoid Dayton
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    Stanford NC SOS of 219 is a red flag if they don’t win 2 games. A win over Cal does nothing for them. 
    Tulsa NC SOS over 300 with a poor NET. I just can’t imagine them getting in
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 753PFN Referee
    It just occurred to me that the playing field is much more level this year compared to last.   Last year, the only teams with 4+ Q1 wins not in the field weren't four games over 0.500.   This year, there WILL BE teams with 4+ Q1 wins AND at least four games over 0.500 in the NIT.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    Vawolf82 said:
    It just occurred to me that the playing field is much more level this year compared to last.   Last year, the only teams with 4+ Q1 wins not in the field weren't four games over 0.500.   This year, there WILL BE teams with 4+ Q1 wins AND at least four games over 0.500 in the NIT.
    Last year the top was much stronger, so they mopped up wins against the middle and bottom.  This year there's been so much "parity" (or weakness at the top) that lots of teams have gotten those wins. 

    The ACC as a conference is one example of this, but not the only one.  I'm not convinced that the Big 10 is very good, but due to the limited non-conference slate their power was set early.  A lot of their teams earn Q1 wins just by beating one another.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,847
    edited March 9
    Yeah. We really 2 wins to be comfortable Friday.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    Wofford (and their least imposing mascot in college sports) hanging too close to ETSU right now.  I don't think UNI has a case, but ETSU would.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,243
    Pull for the Bucs. 
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    Lunardi has us in again.  Strange.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    Lunardi has us in again.  Strange.
    He has for several days
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 753PFN Referee
    edited March 11
    I predict that there will be more bitching about the Selection Process this coming Sunday than any other year EVER.    The differences between teams are just so slight that the Committee is going to have to be more organized than ever.    The things that we list as "good" or "bad" need to be prioritized and applied equally throughout the selection process or they're going to look like idiots.

    For instance, every time I've put this type entry up, I've assumed that Houston would get the AAC's automatic bid....while making fun of Cincy, Memphis, and Wich St at various times.    But when you look at Houston's actual resume, the best thing that you can say is that they are ranked in the Top 25 (normally meaningless), Good NET ranking (didn't work out for State last year) and they shared a three-way tie for the regular season crown.

    But if you look closer, being tied for the regular season may say more bad than good....ie Houston couldn't pull away from the meh that is the AAC; so maybe they aren't that good after all.   Their best two wins are on the road against Wich St and S. Carolina....bubble teams at best....ie no Q1A wins at all.    If they don't win their tourney, I wouldn't vote for them because they have accomplished so little.

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 1,847
    Not sure if we punched our ticket, but we surely didn’t hurt our case.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    We looked good.  Have to repeat that tomorrow.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    Doesn't feel good rooting against Arch...but a Cornhusker win sure would help our case.  DePaul winning later would be even sweeter.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    IU with a 16-1 run to close the half after being down six just a bit earlier. You can cross Nebraska off of the help list. They hung in there for a good while but when you add two FB players to your roster before the tournament it’s not hard to figure out their talent level. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    Cal up 10 on Stanford at the half
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    yup, just saw that.  Stanford WAY less deserving than Indiana, glad to see it.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    DePaul up on 8 on X-men
  • Wolfblood86Wolfblood86 Posts: 392
    Stanford's NET ranking was inflated by a crap non-conference schedule. Glad Cali is smacking that booty. I never thought Stanford was deserving. Hopefully this completely knocks them out of the discussion. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    Cal closes out the Cardinal. X overtakes DePaul
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    DePaul strikes BACK!!
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    Did I make wolf signs for those Blue Demon FTs?  You best believe it!!
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    Fucking Dave Leitao team, can't inbound the ball off a made fucking FT
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    There's Xavier to the NIT!!
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