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NC State @ Boston College -- men's basketball

ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,616PFN Referee
Next up for NC State is a critical game on the road against Boston College.  The Eagles are currently 12-13 (6-8) but are a Q3 game for the NCAA's purposes due to the game being on the road.  This game could move to Q4 if BC loses out (which is entirely possible).  At this point in the year, NC State cannot have a bad loss.

BC is a model of inconsistency.  They've gone loss, win, loss, win for almost a month, though I guess that beat the previous few weeks where they lost everything.  Many of the losses have been ugly including by 19 to GT, 26 to Syracuse, 18 to Wake, 17 to Louisville and then by 17 on Wednesday to a depleted Miami squad.

During this period, BC does have a win against UNC in the Dean Dome (by 1) and at VT (by 4).  They also played Duke fairly tough at home (losing by 8).  They can be dangerous, so the Pack should not take this game lightly.  At the same time, if State can build a working lead, BC may quit.

Looking at the stats for the Eagles, they're not good offensively.  They're ranked over 300 nationally in points per game, FG shooting percentage, FT percentage and 3 point shooting percentage.  They also don't rebound well, turn the ball over, and don't block many shots.  

If there's a bright spot for BC anywhere in the analytics, it is that they do force turnovers. They're in the top 30 nationally in percentage of defensive possessions resulting in a steal, and 43rd nationally in percentage of defensive possessions resulting in some sort of turnover.

BC will play about 7 players.  They are led by senior guard Derryck Thronton.  That's the same Thronton who used to play at Duke, but now is at BC (with two seasons at USC in between).  He's having the best year of his college basketball career, but that probably tells you more about the talent level at BC than anything else.  In conference games, BC is letting him shoot on almost 1/4 of their possessions.  He's only 26% from 3, but he is getting to the line where he is really BC's only good FT shooter (76%).  His assist to turnover ratio in conference is only slightly better than 1:1.

The game plan seems pretty simple for the Pack.  Keep BC in front of you without fouling because this is a team that will struggle to score.  Put DD on Thronton and make him try to beat the entire NC State team 1 against 5.  Get back on defense and make the Eagles score in the half court.

On offense, the Pack needs to work the ball around and see if it can continue to get good looks.  Better offensive ball movement is what caused the 3 point shooting percentages to be higher the last two games.  It's not just that we "made shots."  The Wolfpack got better looks.  Do that and avoid turnovers, and you've got to like NC State's chances.

Speaking of, KenPom likes the Pack by 4 on the road.  They give State a 66% chance of winning.  
Poll Time
  1. Who wins?19 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
    2. Boston College Eagles
  2. Will NC State shoot over 40% from 3?19 votes
    1. Yes
    2. No


  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,315PFN Referee
    I keep predicting a loss, so we keep winning.  #SCIENCEobvs
  • Thanks for the excellent write-up, Rye. I think this is another obvious “are we still serious about trying to make the tournament?” type game. Hope they can get it done. I am holding out hope that despite the constant injuries that have plagued us all year, we could potentially get healthy, gain our focus, and end with a flourish. Wishful thinking on my part, no doubt but as a Pack fan hope is what I hold on to until hope is lost.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,090PFN Referee
    please turn the corner..please turn the corner.. please turn the corner
  • MikePack89MikePack89 Posts: 125
    “Looking at the stats offensively for BC”........... seems like the perfect storm/time for them to breakout and have their best game against our porous D.  Which unknown shooting 7% will light it up for 25?
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,101
    We are .500 in conference games we have absolutely no business losing. This could be a Tums Classic. 
  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 455
    I voted BC wins....only because I actually think we get this game but I'm not jinxing the pole.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,090PFN Referee
    Vegas concurs with Kenpom... likes us by 4 points.
  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 671
    edited February 16
    The accn is getting ready to wisk away dozens of viewers to the BitCoin arena for this stellar matchup.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,016
    Cold shooting is an understatement.   Throwing up prayers is more accurate...
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 366
    Is everyone watching NBA All Star stuff instead? It's dead in here. 
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    I'm watching...just not much to say about our play yet.  Typical NC State, let the underdog dictate the game, fall behind and never recover.

  • PackPACPackPAC Posts: 341
    I'm working, need some score updates if anybody's watching.
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 366
    At least we've switched our defense up
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    I always have my credit card ready when watching a game on ACCN.  Free shipping !

  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    27 - 35 BC. Pack fell behind by 12 early.
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    33-38  Pack on a mini run before half ends.
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 366
    Defense is working tonight 
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    Pack turns ball over twice in 20 seconds, 33-40 BC at half.  Ugly game as usual PackPC
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 366
    Poor last possession before the half. 33-40. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,101
    BC shoots 56%. We shoot 39%. Anybody surprised?
  • Beverly is 0-3 as per usual.  Playing zone is a good idea when he is playing so they can’t take advantage of his inability to defend.
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    Markell is just awful.   He is killing this team with his bonehead play and turnovers.
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    41-48 BC at 16 mark
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 209
    Markell with 4 fouls, 4 turnovers and 4 pts......pitiful.
  • wolfanaticwolfanatic Posts: 462
    This may be one of our most underachieving teams.. A month or so I picked us to lose this game, not because they are better, but because we have a habit over the years of blowing the games like this that we should win when it really matters.  I question the motivating ability of our coach.  You only get one V. in a lifetime..
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