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ACC Update (2/13)

Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 457PFN Referee
edited February 17 in Wolfpack Sports

These updates are a lot more fun to write after a win than after a State loss…or after multiple losses.    So let’s get to it.

 

TREND GRAPHS


The Top 3 have seven ACC losses between them.   After watching GT hold off L’ville in Atlanta, I thought that I would gather up all the losses into one table:


I found it interesting that in the three games played between the Top 3, each team has won one...with two of the wins being on the road.     There is only one more game left between the Top 3 when L’ville visits FSU on 2/24.  


I decided to clean up this graph by removing Clemson, VT, GT, and Pitt.   For the next little while when I refer to “ACC Bubble Teams”, these are the four that I will be talking about.     I wish that I had made this decision last week because I could then have used the term “Bubble Tuesday” when these four teams played amongst themselves.   The original graph still lives on my spreadsheet, so I can easily pull it back out if needed.

It’s interesting that the woeful offensive performance by both teams in C’ville led to a slight drop in both team’s NET rankings.    In the other Tuesday matchup, State sucked less than SYR and got a nice jump in the NET.


I expanded the y-axis on this graph to get most everyone included and even got a couple of data points for VT.   This graph is obviously messy, but I did what I could do and deleted SYR and ND.   If anyone climbs off the top of this graph, then we can move them back to the “Bubbly” graph.

It’s not true that the ONLY reason I keep putting this graph up is the opportunity to laugh at UNC.   But it is true that I wouldn’t bother with it if State was languishing below the NIT line.

 

NITTY GRITTY


 

I clipped the Q1/Q2 results for three of the Bubble teams last week and we saw that  UVa is the only one of the four with a Q1A win.   Last night during the UVa/ND game, the announcers said that Lunardi has put UVa back in his bracket as an 11 seed.   I’m not going to do an entire bracket just to see if I can agree with Lunardi about UVa.    But I do agree that the FSU win puts UVa ahead of the other three ACC bubble teams for now.

When Wisconsin fell out of the Top 30, State lost a Q1 win.   I checked their resume and the Badgers are pretty much guaranteed an at-large bid so that does give State a win over a NCAAT team (at home).   Which brings up the next logical question, does it really matter if the Wisconsin win falls into Q1B versus Q2A.    I would like to think that Wisconsin being ranked 32 (as of today) versus being in Q1B wouldn’t make any difference.    But in the end, you have to figure that the total quantity of Q1 wins has to matter…even if we don’t know exactly how much.  

So I fell down a Big 10 Rabbit Hole, but managed to pull out before I spent hours going through the whole conference.   Here’s an interesting table sorted by ESPN’s prediction of remaining SOS:

 

So with one of the easiest schedules left in the Big 10, we can hope that Wisconsin can climb back into the Top 30 and give State another Q1 win.

Big 10 Rabbit Hole ahead:

If the Selection Committee were meeting today, it’s pretty obvious that they would have to at least discuss 12 of the 14 teams in the Big 10.     But even in this small table, there are some warning flags that jumped out to me:

- Combine IU’s NET ranking with a tough remaining schedule and you have to wonder if they can keep their NET ranking in range to make the NCAAT.

- Minnesota’s projected win total might not be good enough (want to be four games over .500). So they might need to perform better than projected.

- Purdue’s projected win total is enough, but they need to perform at least as well as projected.

I looked at Indiana’s team sheet and then managed to break away from any type of deeper analysis.   (IU could be interesting to discuss again this year.)  Maybe after everyone from the Big 10 has been eliminated from the NCAAT, I can take a look back at the Selection Committee’s decisions.

 

 ACC STANDINGS


 

I threw in an additional table from ESPN’s BPI projections on remaining SOS.    Hopefully, the SOS table will soothe those State fans having nightmares about UNC turning their season around and making the NCAAT.    It ain’t happening.


ACC SCHEDULE


When you throw in a weekend break in addition to five days between SYR and BC….this has to be one of the “easiest” three-game road stretches ever.   Then comes the Duke/FSU home stand where State absolutely has to have at least one win.  

SYR also gets two shots at a key win…but theirs are both on the road.


Comments

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 886
    VaWolf - just awesome. Great work. Thank you.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,315PFN Referee
    Indeed.  This always helps me see the big picture so much.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,101
    Most likely 10-10 or 11-9. Beat Duke or FSU plus the cripples (12-8) and we will get in. I just haven’t seen this team sustain the level of play needed to beat Duke or FSU. I will say shooting 43% from three like we did against the Orange would give us a chance. 

    Solid analysis as always. Lunardi should be reading this. 
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,616PFN Referee
    Great work as always VaWolf! 

    Don’t lose a WTF game plus one win over Duke and FSU and we are likely in.  The Cheats are more about our soul/mojo.
  • Appreciate you taking a peek into the Big Ten as well.  It will  be interesting to see how things finish up for the ACC and the Big Ten teams. 

    Outside of the top 3, the ACC pretty much sucked early on in OOC play.  While it seems to me that the group of 4 bubbly teams have become a little better/more consistent and may "deserve" one, the likelihood that a number of them don't get a bid seems likely. 

     It also seems that without the BigTen having a handful of more dominant teams, the rest of their league might have benefited a little as well. That is, a team normally on the fringe gets a bid.  Then again, could be sour grapes on my end in realizing their league could get more than 10 bids while the ACC languishes.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,315PFN Referee
    edited February 14
    Lock VaWolf and Lunardi in the same room, see how long it takes before Va kills him with his bare hands.
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 457PFN Referee
    I have my concealed carry permit too.

    Lundardi is on the clock to churn out "stuff" to drag eyeballs to ESPN.  When I'm feeling generous, I blame some of his more ignorant stuff on this need to generate web hits.  At least Lunardi doesn't usually fall to trolling fans to get the hits (flashback to Greg Doyell).    
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,101
    Lock VaWolf and Lunardi in the same room, see how long it takes before Va kills him with his bare hands.
    Tab Thacker vs PeeWee Herman type matchup
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,616PFN Referee
    GSO: I agree regarding lack of top end teams in the Big10 this year.  They don't have two or three obvious top 10 teams that are giving the rest of the conference a lot of losses.  Maryland is quietly on top of the league, but I suspect they'd finish third (or maybe even fourth) in the ACC this year.

    I expect the Big 10 to get 8-9 teams in.  I expect just due to shear volume that 3 or maybe 4 will be standing after the first weekend.  I expect to see a lot of busted brackets when people take Big 10 teams deep in their predictions.

    The league to watch post season to me seems like the Big 12. They're quietly taking care of business.  The ACC's top 3, Kentucky/Auburn, Gonzaga, Nova and a couple of mid-majors look dangerous as well.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,870
    WVU and Baylor today in the Big 12. 
  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 671
    So I want uva to lose.  How the hell does that work?  And Clemson, really?
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,870
    Clemson was balling out today. No idea where that came from. 
  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 671
    Just googled Yurtseven’s stats.  Playing time down, points up by 3, rebounds almost up by 4, ft% up 14%, 3p% down from 50% to 21%.  Haven’t seen him play.  I just thought his versatility with the 3 ball would help him at the next level.  
  • JpageJpage Posts: 83
    Don’t worry boys , somebody on BC will have a career HIGH and we will tote a ass whipping and blame it on something, keep the ice cream in the freezer- the only thing cold will be our shooting ! 
  • Wisconsin back in top 30. Making us 4-2 in Q1. 
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