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ACC Update (2/7)

Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 457PFN Referee
edited February 10 in Wolfpack Sports

Not the most thrilling week of basketball I’ve ever seen, but it’s another one in the books.   So let’s get to it.

 

TREND GRAPHS


Duke has won 4 in a row

L-ville has won 9 in a row

FSU – has won 7 of 8 in New Year

So these continue to race ahead of the rest of the pack.


UVa – Won 3 in a row and 4 of 5 since ending a three game skid

ND – Riding a 3-game home winning streak (WF, GT, Pitt)

State halted a 3-game skid on Wed

SYR - In the New Year they’ve lost 2, then won 5, then lost 2

VT - lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 games

GT – won 3 of 4 and showed up in our Bubble Graph

Pitt – lost 3 of 4 to fall into next graph

The interesting thing here is how much ND improved their ranking with three home wins against a rather lackluster slate of opponents.   You won’t make the NCAAT with only a NET ranking (as State fans saw last year), but your NET ranking can take you out of contention.   In other words, winning is always better than losing.


Unlike the Top 40 graph, the last two graphs can get rather congested and confusing if you try to absorb the whole thing in one glance.   I start at the right side of the graph and then look back at a given team to see what they’ve done over time.    I like the trend graphs because it’s easy to see the teams that are collapsing or climbing….and thus worth discussing.

 

NITTY-GRITTY REPORT


https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Nitty%20Gritty%20-%20Feb.%205,%202020.pdf

I almost didn’t include this because it didn’t feel like much had changed since last week.   But GT makes the table for the first time and they gave me another look at how weak State’s conference schedule has been to date.  

Compare the OOC and overall SOS rankings for GT and State.   They are essentially tied in OOC SOS.   But when you look at overall SOS rankings, GT’s ACC schedule has pushed them into single-digits in overall SOS, while State’s overall SOS has fallen quite a bit.   Just another indication of just how easy State’s ACC slate has been so far.

 

ACC STANDINGS

 

I asked last week if anyone knows whether or not GT will be banned for the post-season or not.   I still don’t know the final answer, but the ACC conference webpage still shows three games on Tuesday.   So we’ll go with that for now.

So when we look at the standings and the trend graphs, it’s reasonable to wonder how close UVA, SYR, and ND are to the NCAAT bubble.   So let’s take a look:


It’s hard to fairly evaluate this large bubble group because of teams hanging around the quadrant break points.   One more loss and FSU probably falls to a Q1B win and leaves them with no Q1A wins.   GT wins one more game and they likely have another Q1 win.   The open question is exactly how the Selection Committee views those wins that fall just above or just below one of those break points.


So let’s ignore the current brackets and assume that you had to pick between SYR and UVA for the NCAAT.  What do you do?   

The answer depends on what “things” you value most and we’re not really sure how some of the lesser items on the team sheets are used by the Selection Committee.    For me, I would take UVA because of their win vs a NCAAT team (FSU) and the much better record vs Q2.   Thoughts?  (Note that even though neither UVA nor SYR are on the right side of the bubble today, this is the type of decision that will have to be made.)

Now for ND:



UPCOMING ACC SCHEDULE


After having two back-to-back Sat/Mon schedules, State gets their weekend break.   Spoiler Alert, since they play on Tuesday next week, they will get an extra day or so to prepare for another far-north trip when they go to BC on the next Sunday.

There are only four games played between the top 3 during the regular season.   FSU and L’ville play each other twice and Duke once.   We get one of those matchups on Monday night.

Comments

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,315PFN Referee
    Hey, at least the Holes are still in the 90s.

    They also lost at home to BC...with Anthony in the lineup.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,616PFN Referee
    I love this stuff VA.  To answer your hidden question, if I were the NCAA tournament selection committee picking today, UVA gets the ACC's 4th bid over Syracuse in a play in or 12 seed.  Their resume looks better to me and they are the defending champs (and let's face it that tournament is about eyeballs on TVs).

    BJD: My ideal year of UNC basketball (or football) would be them winning all their non-conference games and then going winless in conference.  That'd bring me joy. 

    This season brings me some joy but they did beat State so we don't have much to crow about.  I think they'll likely beat us again in Chapel Hill.  I might be snickering on the inside but until we beat them, I won't be laughing out loud.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,090PFN Referee
    Hey, at least the Holes are still in the 90s.

    They also lost at home to BC...with Anthony in the lineup.
    The holes being butt this season I think is keeping a lot of Pack fans sane for now.

    How did the ACC get this bad?  Hopefully just one of those statistically anomalous years (with exception of the holes).

    Also, thanks again VaWolf for putting this together.  Sad to see our little NC State logo trending down on your graph.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,869
    Hey, at least the Holes are still in the 90s.

    They also lost at home to BC...with Anthony in the lineup.
    The holes being butt this season I think is keeping a lot of Pack fans sane for now.

    How did the ACC get this bad?  Hopefully just one of those statistically anomalous years (with exception of the holes).

    Also, thanks again VaWolf for putting this together.  Sad to see our little NC State logo trending down on your graph.
    Yet they STILL whipped our tail in our own building. Inexcusable. 
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,315PFN Referee
    yeah, it's a total fluke, seems to me
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,616PFN Referee
    The ACC is down because it was so up last year in talent.  A whole lot of those kids got drafted.  The one and done/freshman chasing game has made this much more cyclic.

    The one constant is the Big 12.  Their smaller league has been atop the RPI (as flawed as it is) and KenPom for the better part of the past decade.  Expansion did the ACC no favors in basketball.
  • Pack78Pack78 Posts: 290
    edited February 9
    Three blind mice in striped shirts at the end of the Dook-hole game in OT help the Devils walk off with a win at holeville..
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 214
    ESPN had UNx a quad 2 team for Duke because UNx had a good enough NET.  Can't figure that one out.  (Sorry, I forgot the link.)  That is about the height of my understanding of those numbers -- glad some of you are much better at it.

    By the way, I can watch Carolina losing like that for the next 25 years, multiple times per year.  Thought Jay Bilas was going to yell "Go Duke" at the end of regulation.  Listening to him was almost unbearable.  I did listen to part of the UNC radio broadcast for the post-game.  Hadn't done that for over 30 years.  Different people but the same arrogance.
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 457PFN Referee
    If you look at the snips of the team sheets, you can see the NET ranges for Q1 and Q2.   A Q2 away game goes down to a NET of 135. Thus ESPN was right about UNC being Q2 for Duke.   
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 457PFN Referee
    edited February 10
    Ran across a nugget at ESPN on projected SOS for the remainder of the regular season (based on their BPI).   I wanted to get this up before the FSU/Duke game tonight.


    I think that these projections add another layer to our discussions looking out over the rest of the season. 
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,315PFN Referee
    Very interesting.  We will have our chances.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,616PFN Referee
    We could absolutely play our way in.  The obvious concern is that we haven’t shown “the stuff” to do so.

    If we are going to make any late season run, it will start tomorrow night.
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