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NC State @ Miami in men's hoops

ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
edited February 3 in Wolfpack Sports
"Fresh off of hosting the Super Bowl, the town of Miami will be similarly electrified by a men's college basketball game on Wednesday between their home town Hurricanes and the top 25 powerhouse NC State Wolfpack.  The Watsco Center will be packed to the gills to see a late season match up between two teams expected to make deep NC State tournament runs.  You'd have better had your tickets early for this one..........."

Hyperbole much? In reality this game features two teams racing to the bottom of the ACC standings, and will be played in front of an empty stadium.  For anyone who is impartial and actually cares about this game, the biggest question is which team is coming in with less momentum.

Miami:
- Enters the game 11-10 overall and 3-8 in the ACC.
- Losers of 7 out of their last 9 in ACC play.
- A lot of these losses were ugly.  They've lost by 33 and 30 against Duke, 16 against Lousville, 17 against NC State and  23 against Carolina.
- In conference games only, Miami is 14th (out of 15) in defensive efficiency and 11th or higher in every measurable defensive stat outside of foul rate (they give up the fewest free throws in the league).
- In conference games only, Miami is 13th in offensive efficiency.  They're near the bottom in every stat other than team free throw shooting, where they lead the conference at 77.8%.
- Miami is currently 103rd in the NCAA's NET ranking, 114th in KenPom, yet oddly 56th in the NCAA's old metric (the RPI).
- Miami's two best players -- Lykes and McGusty have been out recently with injuries.  They basically have 6 players.

NC State
- Enters the game 14-8 (5-6).
- Losers of 3 in a row including two to bad teams -- GT and UNC. 
- It is not just that State is losing, but how.  The team has looked lost for large portions of the game, and has had well documented break downs on offense and defense.  What's worse is that the team is seemingly struggling with unity, chemistry and we've seen multiple public interviews suggesting the players are checked out. 
- Oh yeah, the team's been injured most of the year.  It looks like that is catching up mentally and physically.
- For the second year in a row, NC State's offense has fallen off of a cliff (statistically) once conference play started.  What once was a top 10 offense nationally is only the 9th ranked one within games played inside the ACC.  State is in the bottom half in effective FG%, offensive rebounding percentage, free throw rates, and 2 and 3 point shooting percentages.  The numbers show what my eyes have been seeing for the better part of 2 years.  When the pace slows down or the talent level evens out, our offense is offensive.  The lone bright spot is that State doesn't turn it over much (2nd in the conference), but when you go down and fire up a 3 pointer within the first 10 seconds of a possession and don't secure the rebound, it's pretty much the same thing.
- NC State's defense is what it is.  The Pack is 10th overall in conference play, is dead last in the opposition's free throw rate (i.e. we foul a lot).  The lone bright spots are upper third results in steals and blocks.
- NC State is 69th in NET, 73rd in KenPom and 72nd in RPI.  The numbers are pretty consistent and they're of a Wolfpack team that has played its way out of the tournament.

And for those wondering, these stats are coming out of a very, very weak ACC.  The league is currently 6th in the KenPom, and 6th in the RPI.  This isn't murderer's row that Miami and NC State have struggled against.  The bubble will pop against ACC teams this year.

Because I love the Pack, let's put up a game plan:
- The NCAA tournament dream is likely dead.  Who cares about the NIT?  Who on this team should really talk about either?  How about we go and try to win a game and feel good about ourselves?
- This is a winnable game against a short handed team. The team needs to know that and be focused.
- State won the first game in large part because the Pack shot 45% from 3.  Since then the Pack hasn't shot above 30% in a game.  Think of this as a game between two entirely different teams.  It won't resemble the first one for either team.
- We don't need a complicated scouting report that we either cannot remember or don't bother to read.  This game isn't that hard.
- Miami cannot score, so do not foul them.  Stay in front of them, but let them shoot. 
- When State has the ball, be disciplined.  Miami doesn't force turnovers and cannot afford to apply pressure due to their thin numbers.  Work the ball around and look for a good shot after at least 3 passes.
- Miami cannot rebound (278th nationally offensively and a horrific 329th defensively). Crash the boards.
- Miami likes to take smaller players and send them inside.  Neither of their big men average over 7 points a game. As a result, they get a ton of shots blocked (329th nationally). Manny Bates should have a big day if he can stay out of foul trouble.


KenPom thinks NC State wins by 1, and gives the Pack a 51% chance of winning.  This game is a "pick em." 

Poll time
  1. Who wins?18 votes
    1. NC State Wolfpack
      61.11%
    2. Miami Hurricanes
      38.89%
  2. Will the Pack shoot over 30% from 3?18 votes
    1. Yes
      11.11%
    2. No
      88.89%
  3. Will we hear that "players weren't following the scouting report" after the game?18 votes
    1. Yes
      50.00%
    2. No
      50.00%
«134

Comments

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    Neither team can defend, so this ought to be quite the shitshow.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    oh, by the way, I asked David Glenn a question on The Athletic.  Turns out the last time only ONE of the "Big 4" NC-based schools made the dance?

    1976 - the second season of multi-bid conference eligibility

    Funny thing is, David says he still hasn't lost hope in NC State making it.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    Nice question to Glenn, and I am surprised at his response. 

    I have lost hope.  KenPom has as well.  He has us finishing 9-11 in conference (with this win).  That feels about right to me at this point.
  • pakfanistanpakfanistan Posts: 338
    Hey man, until we lose the ACC tournament, it's never too late.

    Past performance is not an indicator of future performance or some such blah blah
  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 507
    Going off topic but this team isn't much of a topic at this point.  

    What an outstanding pick up Chase Brice would've been for the football team.  He is an outstanding pick up for Duke.  
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    Hope may have been a bad word.  My reasonable expectation is we'll be out barring a late season push we've not seen since V.
  • RickRick Posts: 2,484PFN Referee
    I admire those of you who can still follow the fb and men's bb teams. 
    My dad is a state grad, so is my brother and two closest friends. Not a one of them bothers to care. I will at least check the score but they have completely checked out.

  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 752PFN Referee
    ryebread said:
    Hope may have been a bad word.  My reasonable expectation is we'll be out barring a late season push we've not seen since V.
    More like 2005 (I think).   Tony Bethel had digestive issues and missed a bunch of time.  They finally got their shit together and beat WF (w/o low-blow Paul) to get in with a horrible RPI.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    V was hyperbole and I knew as I typed it, but it's going to take a late season rally + ACC tournament run like we've not seen here since the HWSNBN years just to get an 8/9 type game.

    I really cannot remember the last year when we ended the regular season on any real momentum.  KK's year one was close, but then we lost the last 2-3 regular season games and promptly went 0-2 in the post season.  We ran out of gas as a team.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    This one will be close as we are pretty evenly matched with Miami. I predict a two point Pack loss. 
  • 44rules44rules Posts: 447
    We can't shoot. We don't pass.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    edited February 5
    As far as I'm aware we have everyone back from injuries for a week or two now and have had time to practice as a unit and hopefully gel.  There's a chance we come out tonight looking like a much better team.  On the other hand a loss tonight would be the death knell on any NCAA Tournament discussion going forward.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    Also, Vegas likes us by 3.5 right now.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    As far as I'm aware we have everyone back from injuries for a week or two now and have had time to practice as a unit and hopefully gel.  There's a chance we come out tonight looking like a much better team.  On the other hand a loss tonight would be the death knell on any NCAA Tournament discussion going forward.
    This pretty much sums it up.  If we are going to make any sort of late season push, we'll see signs of it tonight.

    If we lose tonight, I see this spiraling out of of control.....
  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 507
    There is nothing I've seen the past four games that even whispers to me state will win this game.  I've been wrong before, really doubt I am this time.  
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,806PFN Referee
    Miami can't play defense, and we usually beat such teams.

    The question is whether the wheels have all fallen off or not.
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    Miami can't play defense, and we usually beat such teams.

    The question is whether the wheels have all fallen off or not.
    Exactly.  And being on the road may take some of the pressure off, or put a few hundred miles between outside sources of noise.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,793
    ryebread said:
    Miami can't play defense, and we usually beat such teams.

    The question is whether the wheels have all fallen off or not.
    Exactly.  And being on the road may take some of the pressure off, or put a few hundred miles between outside sources of noise.
    Random Observations...

    The venue will NOT be the Cameron Crazies.....that is for sure....

    Jim Laranaga will probably have the best defense (and maybe offense) waiting for us.  I still think that he is best "Use what you have got and make do" ACC Coach out there.  he is flexible and also reminds me (coaching style....not "personna" of V.

    Hopefully we will be somewhat on tract and all the cobwebs and such will be fewer.  

    Also hope that Braxton's back is healing.  I never had to have surgery and it has only been in the past few years of doing some stretches and exercises has my back ceased to be an issue.  Having to stand as it is too painful to get up and down can NOT be good for the brain when you concentrate on a jumper.

    I DO hope that there are numerous late night Ice Cream shops around or between the arena and the airport so that the team has a late night snack before the return trip.

    Otherwise.....I hope Troll has a good host server as it will be used (or abused) late in the game and for the next 24 hours....

    I vote....WE WIN....  Hopefully after the game, HBBC KK will not stand up and ceremoniously tear up his game plan and cast it on the floor with our hopes for the "Dance"....

  • oldwolfoldwolf Posts: 136
    Evidently Helen’s got injured in practice on Monday and is not available to play tonight ☹️
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,793
    oldwolf said:
    Evidently Helen’s got injured in practice on Monday and is not available to play tonight ☹️
    Hellums is on the IRL?  Maybe we ought to pay off the folks with the Black Cloud Drone.  

    I wonder if our practices are being choreographed by the producers of the WWE or the UFC or XGames or such....  This is unbelievable....

    Any MORE details?
  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 1,073
    Another non-game injury?? Apparently we are working much harder in practice and pregame warmups than in actual games.  How about we switch it up.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 2,793
    Per the radio folks, Miami is missing their "star" PG and one other starter.  We shall see...and HOPE and PRAY....

    Of course....we tend to let the bench players have a career night....

    Go Pack
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    Another non-game injury?? Apparently we are working much harder in practice and pregame warmups than in actual games.  How about we switch it up.
    In game neck strains from trying to see where your man went are our biggest risk. 
  • freshmanin83freshmanin83 Posts: 1,577PFN Referee
    Those practices must be something else.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,628
    Another low energy start
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