Next up for NC State is a home game against the Miami Hurricanes. This one happens tomorrow night.
The questions for State tend to be the continuation of recent themes....
- Will Bryce be back?
- If so, will he be pre-injury CJ?
- Does good Markell (ND) or bad Markell (insert play from most of our losses) show up?
- Can Hellems return to pre-injury form?
- Does the team recognize that DJ is shooting about 66% and Bates 60% and they should get the ball early and often?
- Can we play defense, particularly in the half court set without fouling?
- Can Beverly and Andree shoot over 40% given the looks the offense is getting them?
The players to watch for Miami are the three guards -- jitterbug Lykes, McGusty and Vasiljevic. The three each average over 14 ppg on 44%-46% FG shooting. Miami's in the top 25 in offense nationally in offensive efficiency, but an interesting statistical oddity (given their offensive efficiency and 3 guards) is that they're just about dead last in assist rate.
As a result of being so guard heavy, Miami rebounds very poorly -- both defensively and offensively. They also don't get to the line, and get a lot of their shots blocked.
On defense they're fairly passive, not fouling much, but not generating turnovers, steals, etc.. The most telling stat is that teams score almost 60% of their points from the 2 against the Canes (which is 10% higher than the NCAA average) and also don't shoot that many 3 pointers against them (4 per game less than the national average). Teams don't have to go to the perimeter. Opponents can get what they need inside, and Miami is only ranked 199th in defense nationally.
In games against common opponents, Miami won at Clemson in overtime on New Year's Eve. Outside of that they've lost twice to Louisville, been blown out by Duke (33 points), blown out by Florida (20 points), and blown out by UConn (25 points). They're either game and a tough out (beat Illinois by 2 on the road, Clemson, beat Pitt by 5 at home) or get blitzed.
I feel like this game is more about NC State and the way it plays than anything Miami will or won't do. No offense to the Canes, but they are playing on the road, really haven't defended very well this year and don't have a lot of size. NC State needs to pound the ball inside and not settle for the "open" 3 point shot.
Vegas thinks the Pack by 8. KenPom likes the Pack by 7.
- Who wins?17 votes
NC State Wolfpack70.59%