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ACC Update (1-12)

Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 753PFN Referee
edited January 13 in Wolfpack Sports

I can’t manage to gather any enthusiasm or preference in the Sunday night matchup between Pitt and Miami.   So I’m going to do my weekly roundup today and mostly ignore this game.

 

TREND GRAPHS  

The only big game from the top of the ACC came midweek with FSU getting a big road victory at L’ville.

State’s first data point was taken before the Clemson loss.   1-2 for January has State’s ranking pretty much in free fall.

I’m surprised that VT’s home win over State resulted in that big of a jump…but it is what it is.

 

UVa started the week ranked #18 in the AP poll.   I’m sure that their 0-2 week will correct that mistake and I’ll have a little more to say about the Hoo’s in a minute.

I looked at one of last season’s posts and 2/3 of the conference was represented on the first two graphs.    Depending on how far Pitt drops, we have a little over 1/3 conference represented in my two normal graphs.   So to cover everyone except BC, here’s a new graph


I don’t know how much this graph is worth, but it takes next to nothing to add it to this post.   I figure that best case, we’ll get to watch someone climb up to the NCAAT Bubble AND laugh at UNC’s woes.   Worst case, we’ll still laugh at UNC and I’ll drop the graph if it proves to be worthless.

 

NET SUMMARY

Since I can’t find a website with NET data that is easily turned into a nice-looking table, I’ll use the snipping tool to produce an ugly table that summarizes those teams with a NET ranking of 75th or better from the NCAA’s Nitty-Gritty pdf.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Nitty%20Gritty%20-%20Jan.%2011,%202020.pdf


Last Tuesday, I started playing around with the pdf linked above to figure out if I could produce a legible table.    This is the best combination legibility plus ease of preparation that I could come up with.   If you have any thoughts on what I could do better, share them in the comments.

State’s OOC opponents must have had a bad week, since State’s NC SOS dropped from 60-something on Tuesday to 109 on Sunday.    But just like the NET graphs, I expect the NC SOS to bounce around and then eventually settle out.    This isn’t anything critical yet, but we’ll want to keep an eye on this (assuming that State starts winning).

There were two things that jumped out to me last Tue that I wanted to point out.    The first is low-hanging fruit in that VT has reverted to a Greenburg-like OOC schedule that too often comes out of Blacksburg.    I really don’t know if VT is good enough to stay around the Bubble or not, but their OOC schedule has created a large hole to dig out of.   On the plus side, they have a Q1A win over Mich St in a neutral location (which is very good).   

UVa played a harder, but uninspiring OOC schedule.   Here’s a snip of their team sheet showing their Q1 and Q2 games.

 

We all know that the AP/Coach’s rankings are based as much on reputation as results, especially early in the year.    Any team with the schedule that UVA has played certainly hasn’t proven anything that would have warranted inclusion in anyone’s Top 25 ….especially since their only Q1 game was a curb-stomping by what appears to be a very average Purdue team.

In any event, I’ve highlighted their current Q1A games left to play.     Rankings can and will change from today’s numbers.    So UVA has somewhere between three and six Q1A games left to play.   But first, they better start winning before their NET ranking falls below the Bubble Zone.

After looking at UVA’s remaining schedule, I figured I needed to look at State’s…especially since I mentioned last week that State will likely end up with one of the easier conference schedules.


So it looks like State will end up with somewhere between two and four Q1A games left to play.    In case it’s not obvious…..THAT’S NOT GOOD.    But much like UVA, State needs to start winning or the Q1A results won’t matter to anyone.

 

ACC STANDINGS

I manually put in the results of the Sunday night Pitt/Miami game into the standings:

 

I don’t know that the standings this early in the season are worth a lot of discussion.    But it is worth pointing out that both GT and BC are doing much better than I expected before the season started.  

If the standings are not worth much, then projections of final standings are obviously worth even less.   But I found the BPI projections interesting anyway:

 

If these projections prove to be at least semi-accurate, then the ACC could easily end up with only three NCAAT bids.  I also find it interesting/depressing that from #6 to #15, the projected wins ranged from six to ten.    That pretty much describes a bunch of mediocre teams in a mediocre conference.

 

UPCOMING SCHEDULE

 

In addition to State’s two games, there are a couple of things that stand out to me:

-          UVA at FSU will give us more data on both teams and could move the Hoos beyond the bubble.

-          L’ville at Duke is one of the few matchups we’ll have at the top of the conference

A quick glance at the ACC master schedule turned up two Monday games for State.   The Monday games are really bad because you only have Sunday to focus on Monday’s game.    If the Monday games are key matchups, then you run the risk of turning the Sat games into potential traps.    That’s what State faces this week with Clemson on Sat and UVA on Monday.     (The same scenario will turn up for State in the last week of the regular season with Pitt on Sat and at Duke the next Monday.)

With Sunday's game looking uninspiring and State's game on Monday, I'll try and get the next update done on Sunday again. That's it for me.   What you got?

Comments

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    It’s better for us to have a game like UVA with no time to prepare. Maybe that will help us play decent
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    edited January 13
    This is a great write up.  Thanks for pulling it together VaWolf. 

    I tend to think the ACC will end up as a 5 bid league -- not because we necessarily deserve it, but because the bids have to go somewhere.  Your description of the ACC (a bunch of mediocre teams) kind of describes college basketball as a whole.

    Duke is a step above anyone else in the league, and are improving from what I am seeing.  Then there's FSU and Louisville that are legit top 20 teams.  After that, it's wide open mediocrity.

    There are two things (beyond State's obvious play) that concern me:
    1) Optics of a defending champion not making the NCAA tournament. I suspect if UVA is remotely close to the bubble, they'll get in.
    2) UNC is UNC and the brand has a strong pull.  I still think the ACC is going to prop them up, and them stitching together enough late wins to get in.  So while I would love to laugh at them, that will likely come at NC State's expense.

    State might want to consider a self ban this post season.............
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,243
    No way ACC gets more than 4, and many think only three. 
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    3 or 4 bids from the historic ACC just seems bad for college basketball.  I'll tell you this much, this season is the LEAST college hoops I've watched in my lifetime.  Not sure if that's just a product of getting older or if the NCAA product is declining.  Maybe it's some combination of the two.
  • oldwolfoldwolf Posts: 136
    Admittedly, the ACC is down this year, but so is every other conference!  

    There does not not seem to be any overall dominant teams this year.

    everything seems wide open with possibilities.


  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,243
    oldwolf said:
    Admittedly, the ACC is down this year, but so is every other conference!  

    There does not not seem to be any overall dominant teams this year.

    everything seems wide open with possibilities.


    The Big Ten is absolutely loaded. 
  • 44rules44rules Posts: 447
    Great work, VA. So how hard would it be to replace the NCS with Tuffy on the graphics? If we're going down, I prefer Tuffy or the Slobberin' Wolf ...
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 753PFN Referee
    edited January 13
    44rules said:
    Great work, VA. So how hard would it be to replace the NCS with Tuffy on the graphics? If we're going down, I prefer Tuffy or the Slobberin' Wolf ...
    Replacing the logo is not hard, but Tuffy would be too small once I downsize it to fit on a graph.   The jpeg goes in as a rectangle, so I tried to stick to logos that came closest to filling the rectangle.   The wolf head would have a lot of white fill that would overlap and obscure the logos as the season drags on.   
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    TAT: I am with you regarding watching college sports.  I'm sure it's my age and lot in life, but I'm not doing it, nor really in any way prioritizing doing it.

    Wulf: You may be right on the bids.  I don't think the ACC deserves more than about 4 given where the conference RPI sits. At the same time, someone has to fill open slots.  A lot of the bubble will really be on how many upsets happen in conference tournaments.  

    As for the Big 10, are they really? They're the best conference, but that best conference was only a one game challenge winner over the #5 conference ACC.  I don't see great teams there.  I see a number of solid ones.  Loaded describes the whipping that the ACC used to put on the Big 10 when the challenge first started.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 2,243
    I am just saying they have a bunch of tournament caliber teams. Right now the projection is 10. 
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