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NC State men's basketball at Virginia Tech

ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
Coming off a come from behind victory at home in a must win game against ND, the Pack go on the road for an intriguing match up against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech was historically good under Buzz, but he left for Texas $$$. 

VT has an entirely new coaching staff, and has had plenty of roster turnover.  Five of the top seven players getting minutes for the Hokies are freshman.

VT is led by freshman Landers Nolley.  He's a 6 ft 7, 225 pound forward who is averaging 17 points and 6 rebounds per game while shooting 40% from three.  He's a one man match up nightmare for most teams, but NC State might be better positioned than most to guard him given we plan a small PF.  

While no one else on the Hokies is averaging over 10 points per game, an interesting player to watch will be freshman guard Jalen Cone. Cone was a Wolfpack recruit from Walkertown, NC who picked VT seemingly due to immediate PT. Two thirds of his shots come from the 3 point line, where he is shooting a blistering .558!  When we look for players that might have a bit of extra motivation in a game (and thus play better than they normally do), Cone's the one that jumps out.

At a team level, VT is a little better than the Pack on defense, but not as good on offense. On offense, they're primarily a 3 point shooting, perimeter oriented team that plays at a very deliberate pace (318th nationally).  They rank 5th in the country in percentage of points coming from 3, and in the bottom (330s) in percentage of points coming from 2 or from the FT line.  As one would expect from a smaller, guard oriented team, they protect the ball very well, and generate a lot of assists (top 10 in both categories).  They don't rebound offensively all that well.

On defense, they're kind of a mirror image.  They give up a ton of 3 pointers and points from the perimeter.  Nothing stands out as good, outside of the fact that they don't foul.  They're 2nd in the nation in limiting the free throws taken by their opponents.

Speaking of opponents, VT and State have one common one in Clemson.  VT beat Clemson by 7 on the road the first game of the season.  We know what happened to the Pack when they recently made the same trip south.

The thing to watch for with NC State is the general is the health of our players.  One would have to give the older NC State team an advantage if playing with a full roster, but currently with State it feels like we don't know who is going to be available or 100% on any night.

KenPom likes the Hokies at home by 1.  Given the match up (grinding team that protects the ball, doesn't foul and shoots 3s) as well as the uncertainty in NC State's roster, I tend to agree. 

If we get a healthy CJ Bryce back, and he plays to his pre-injury level, then things look a bit different. That's a lot to ask related to the recovery from a concussion.
Three questions
  1. Will CJ Bryce play against VT?20 votes
    1. Yes
      80.00%
    2. No
      20.00%
  2. Will CJ be pre-injury CJ if he does play?20 votes
    1. Yes
      25.00%
    2. No
      75.00%
  3. Who wins?20 votes
    1. NC State
      35.00%
    2. Virginia Tech
      65.00%
«134

Comments

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    Rye you are on point.. beat me before I could even get the banner up.

    Do you subscribe to Kenpom or is there a free predictor tool out there somewhere on the www?  There used to be a free one that used Kenpom figures but I think Kenpom asked them to take it down last season.
  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 1,074
    A positive note about CJ last night is that when I saw him on the bench during the game, he seemed fairly animated and mentally involved on what was happening on the floor (not just cheering a good play).  Meaningless perhaps, but I will take it as a good sign.

    I think he plays, but if he does, I don't think he is the pre-injury CJ.  I say that only due to it seems that every player that was playing at a high level over the past 2 years has returned to play at a lower level after missing a game.
  • pakfanistanpakfanistan Posts: 338
    Rye you are on point.. beat me before I could even get the banner up.

    Do you subscribe to Kenpom or is there a free predictor tool out there somewhere on the www?  There used to be a free one that used Kenpom figures but I think Kenpom asked them to take it down last season.
    http://www.barttorvik.com/trank.php#


  • RickRick Posts: 2,485PFN Referee
    LOL that all 4 people that voted voted the same way
    Yes, no, VT
  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 1,074
    Rick said:
    LOL that all 4 people that voted voted the same way
    Yes, no, VT
    Too funny. 
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 2,233PFN Referee
    paki's site is scraping kenpom and is pretty blatant about it (table views even look identical).  I'm amazed it is still up.

    I paid KenPom the $20 for a year's license. I figured it was the least I could do for the community.
  • pakfanistanpakfanistan Posts: 338
    I'm not entirely sure he's scraping kenpom's site.  Kenpom gets his data from somewhere.  They might just be mocking him by copying his site design for charging $20 a pop for running it through some basic formula.  
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,807PFN Referee
    I broke it up.  No, no, VPI.  We'll keep going LWLWLW ad infinitum.

    It's a great win for student athletes that MOST are being much more cautious about concussions and their impact.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,765PFN Referee
    edited January 11
    VPI only a 2 point favorite so not far off the Kenpom prediction.. CJ Bryce still questionable as of this morning.
  • SamIamSamIam Posts: 509
    So does CJ Bryce have a brain injury????  If he is still having concussion symptoms I don't think sitting on the sidelines in ripped jeans in a loud (kind of loud) arena is good for a head ache and other symptoms.  What's the real deal
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    CJ Bryce warming up with the team and expected to play. Hopefully we drank a little Gatorade before this one so we don’t lose guys to cramps after 20 minutes of PT. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    Texpack said:
    CJ Bryce warming up with the team and expected to play. Hopefully we drank a little Gatorade before this one so we don’t lose guys to cramps after 20 minutes of PT. 
    Update: KK says he’s out today
  • They just had to bring up last year’s score. And I had forgotten about that abomination.
  • When’s the last time we had a start like this???
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 436
    OH WE'RE GOING OFF FOR 24 POINTS TODAY, BOYS
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    10-0 start for the Pack. This play-by-play guy deserves the Solemani treatment 
  • RickRick Posts: 2,485PFN Referee
    When’s the last time we had a start like this???


    It is a nice start. Now avoid long scoring droughts
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 436
    Texpack said:
    10-0 start for the Pack. This play-by-play guy deserves the Solemani treatment 
    Well, that might be a BIT harsh, but I understand the sentiment. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    So much for the good start
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 436
    Oof. They are gonna stretch Bates out of his comfort zone. 
  • WolfWiz11WolfWiz11 Posts: 436
    So is it our turn to go on a 13-0 run? 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    VT making some tough shots
  • RickRick Posts: 2,485PFN Referee
    I should have stopped watching once we were up 10-0. 
    Now we are frustrating to watch. VT adjusted. We don't seen to have.
  • I heard VT puts up a lot of 3s. If they keep hitting like they are (50%), it will be hard to beat them
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 2,629
    The double team has shut down Fundy
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