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ACC Update (1-3)

Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 379PFN Referee
edited January 6 in Wolfpack Sports

I would like to wish everyone here a belated Happy New Year and take a quick look around the ACC to see what we can find interesting.   Spoiler Alert:   Those from my generation will likely remember the phrase “Don’t look Ethel” and if you don’t…that means for the most part, it’s time to hide your eyes for what is shaping up to a forgettable year for most of the conference.

 

SO WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT THE NET and the NCAAT in 18/19?

To be honest, not all that much. We learned that

-  The NCAA Selection Committee didn’t turn over the selection process to a formula…even one that they had developed for them.

- The Selection Committee wasn’t happy with dividing a team’s wins into just four quadrants, so they split Q1 and Q2 into sub-quadrants and evidently decided that we didn’t need to know what that meant.

-  From interviews of the Selection Committee, the Q1A wins are really important and listed as one of the reasons that State didn’t get into the NCAAT (State was 0-9 against Q1A opponents IIRC).

-  The Selection Committee still takes a dim view of power teams that fill their OOC schedule with cupcakes.   My conclusion that the Selection Committee takes punitive action against Bubble teams with weak OOC schedules gains more support.

-  I literally have no idea how Q1B and Q2A-B wins are used in the Selection Process.   All I can say is that a win here is better than a loss, but may well mean nothing special on Selection Sunday.

In the end, I was disappointed that State didn’t get an at-large bid, but I wasn’t surprised.   Several years ago, Syracuse had three Top 25 wins and a total of six Top 50 wins and all of that earned them a #1 seed in the NIT.    State’s season and NIT seed both ranked behind that Syracuse team that was discussed here:

https://www.statefansnation.com/2017/03/selection-sunday-post-mortem-2/

 

WHERE ARE WE AS LEAGUE PLAY REALLY KICKS OFF?

Unfortunately, we aren’t going to get as good of a summary as we’ve had in the recent past.   Last year, the NCAA had the NET info in spreadsheet format for down load.   So far this year they only have pdfs, which don’t transition easily into spreadsheets.    The following ranking seems to be getting updated daily and you can hit the “conference” heading and sort the rankings by conference.  

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

 

So that gives us this table without nearly enough background info:



This season could easily net the fewest tournament bids for the 15-team ACC.  

 

STATE’s ACC SCHEDULE

Since the table has so little info, I decided to use it as a springboard to discuss State’s 2019/2020 ACC schedule.   (It’s depressing to see that one of State’s losses was to a sub-500 GT team.)

As most everyone knows, the ACC has moved a 20 game schedule which means that

-          2-3 conference games are played before the New Year

-          Two OOC games are traded in for two conference games

-          For most teams, that will mean one less home game.

-          The delta between the toughest and easiest conference schedule should tighten up.   If life doesn’t interfere, I’ll look to see how much difference two more conference games make.  

In general, adding more conference games means more watchable games.   But it looks like this year’s ACC slate is not going to produce a lot of games worthy of national attention.

Using today’s NET rankings as a ruler, State will once again have one of the weakest schedules in the ACC (for about the third straight year).   Assuming that the rankings are somewhat predictive of the final conference standings, State will end up playing 9 or 10 games against teams that will be playing on ACCT Tuesday.   This means that you can completely ignore most people that start throwing around a minimum conference record to get a NCAAT bid.  

 

CHRONOLOGICAL SCHEDULE


I highlighted the teams that one would typically expect to finish in the upper half of the conference.   You can play around with your own final rankings, but it seems pretty clear that the second half of the ACC schedule is going to end up being far tougher than the first half. 

 

MORE INFO

If you go to this link, you can get the NET info on two pdf’s that are updated most days.  

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx

One is the “nitty-gritty” report which gives a one-line summary for each team.    The other pdf is the full team sheet that will be used by the Selection Committee.

Looking at State’s team sheet, we can see that the Wisconsin and UNC-G wins currently fall into Q1B with little/no chance of moving into Q1A.     State went 0-2 against Q1A teams (Auburn, Memphis).  Thus State didn’t accomplish a lot in the preseason, but at least they didn’t dig a big hole that they will have to climb out of.   State’s OOC schedule currently ranks 56th…which isn’t tough enough to warrant any special favors from the Selection Committee, but does move State completely off their punitive radar.

I’m neither particularly depressed nor excited about what we’ll see out of State this year.    I sort of expected another Bubble-type year and that’s about what we’ve seen so far.   Insert George Will quote….Nice thing about being a pessimist is that you’re constantly either being proven right or pleasantly surprised.    Let’s hope for pleasantly surprised this year.

While I have the team sheets open, I might as well run a test to see if the whole thing shows up legibly or not:


 

REST OF THE CONFERENCE

I haven’t taken the time to spend much time looking around the conference until I started to pull this little write-up together.  Hopefully, the NCAA will start releasing the stuff in spreadsheet form so that I can take a better look around the conference.    Here are a few things that caught my eye:

UNC ranked at 82 has to rank up pretty high on my pleasant surprises thus far.   Unfortunately their struggles were largely caused by serious player injuries and I wouldn’t wish that on just about anyone.   Reports say that Cole Anthony is expected to make a return sometime in Jan.    We’ll have to wait and see if they can dig out of the hole they’ve created, but the road will not be easy.   They have two Q1 and two Q2 games at home with six Q1 games and three Q2 games on the road.

The team sheets are really helpful as they lay out the remainder of the regular season sorted by quadrants.   At present, Pitt looks to have a pretty miserable schedule left to play…7 home games in Q3, one home game in Q2 and one home game in Q1.    The rest of their games fall in Q1 or Q2 and are on the road.  

I took a quick look at the conference SOS to see if anything stood out.   Miami is in line for the hardest conference schedule with H/A games against Duke, FSU, and L’ville.   Duke takes the early lead for the easiest ACC schedule with no H/A games against FSU or L’ville.    Duke’s toughest H/A opponents are State, UNC, and VT….and only time will tell if those three really qualify as tough or not.

I haven’t seen Duke, FSU, or L’ville play, but the data says that those three are the cream of the conference.   We’ll see what we see, but at least Duke has some Q1A wins in OOC play (Kansas and Mich St).    L’ville hasn’t played any Q1A games yet and is just 1-2 in Q1B games.    (But at least their Q1-B win was a solid thrashing of Michigan at home.)  FSU hasn’t played any Q1A games either and is 2-2 in Q1B games.  Not exactly a stellar resume for what should be the best of the ACC.


UPCOMING SCHEDULE



Comments

  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,768
    Right now the projection is four bids for the ACC. That is abysmal for a conference our size. 
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 379PFN Referee
    edited January 3
    Note to TAT.   The pictures that I included last year were created by the Windows snipping tool.   I was concerned when that technique didn't display pictures after your last major update.    I was pleasantly surprised to see that the snipping tool pictures are working again.  An engineer needs his tables/graphs.

    Side Note - Putting the jpegs into WORD and then copying into the editor does not display the pictures.   At least inserting the jpegs using the comment box commands worked.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 2,012PFN Referee
    Glad things are working (mostly) for you, Vawolf.

    Great thread and excellent read to help understand where things stand heading into the bulk of ACC play.

    To your point about UNC I would think the selection committee has other incentives (whatever one could easily speculate those to be) to push them through if they wind up on the bubble.. I can't image they would ever get"snubbed".
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,030PFN Referee
    Great work.  I won't believe the Holes are out unless they're .500 or below.
  • freshmanin83freshmanin83 Posts: 1,190PFN Referee
    Thanks Vawolf82. I don't see that kind of information and quality analysis most places. That is a Q1a win post. 
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 854
    awesome. Thanks VaWolf!!
  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 1,422PFN Referee
    Great, great post. Some quick thoughts:
    - State’s not really earned anything in the non-conference. A 40 in the Net is right on the bubble line.
    - Outside of Duke, no ACC team has either.
    - The league is weaker than I can ever remember. I think we are RPI number 5.
    - Auburn is the game we likely will look back and think slipped away.  They’re currently RPI number 3 (and I intentionally mention RPI because I am not convinced the NCAA has ditched it). That would have been a Q1a win.  All we had to do there was hit some free throws.
    - Expansion has not helped the ACC in basketball, unless one argues that expanding was the only thing that kept the league viable.  I don’t personally buy that given the Big12 still exists.
    - There’s no way that UNC gets left out.  Expect an incredibly friendly ACC whistle and a late season charge.
    - Defending Champ UVA will push, grab, foul and ugly up enough league games to get in.
    - Between what I expect will transpire with UNC and UVA, State will have to win their way in.  This is likely a 5 bid ACC. Six only happens if NC State makes it darn near impossible to leave the Pack out.
    - The good news is that it is wide open.  NC State has to go and take it.
    - The bad news is that I cannot remember a season with this many critical injuries that was also paired with an all conference senior who has regressed.  It has not been and seemingly will continue to not be easy.


  • RickRick Posts: 1,765PFN Referee
    Rye,
    Your comments about UNC and uva are why I don't watch college basketball any longer. It's a farce
  • BasspackerBasspacker Posts: 178
    Pack just needs not beat itself with bad play and poor decisions like we have seen from Markell and Daniels so far.  Win the games it should starting today in Clemtown and I think this team will be dancing.

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 3,030PFN Referee
    This is, by FAR the best chance we will ever have to win the League.  Just get the double bye, and it's on.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 854
    We actually have a pretty awesome recruiting class coming in. If we can keep all of those guys just 2 years, we will be able to compete nationally. The class has a lot of 4 star talent, and hopefully the 2 most sought after guys want to stay 2 years. Between them and the key reserves Keatts can find, we will be fine.

    Dont forget how high a level we were playing last year before MJ got hurt. We are getting closer and closer to the talent and depth Keatts really wants.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,890
    edited January 4
    we have a shot this year
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 379PFN Referee
    Texpack said:
    we have a shot this year
    Maybe, but I haven't seen anything to make me think that this team is better than last year's.
  • RickRick Posts: 1,765PFN Referee
    Texpack said:
    we have a shot this year

    Shot at what?
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,768
    Pack just needs not beat itself with bad play and poor decisions like we have seen from Markell and Daniels so far.  Win the games it should starting today in Clemtown and I think this team will be dancing.

    So much for that. 
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 379PFN Referee
    edited January 6
    I forgot all about including the ACC schedule for the upcoming week, so I just added it.

    Other than the State games, the only one I found interesting was Clemson at UNC.   Will this be the year?
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