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Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, General Weather

1984Met1984Met Posts: 97
edited August 29 in Wolfpack Sports
For all of you weather wannabes and weather geeks.  Thought I would make a new thread for tropical storm, hurricane, and general weather resources.  Please feel free to add your favorites.  Hope this can help with your sports-related planning.


2.  National Hurricane Center:
     https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

3.  Find your local NWS office webpage -- can get radar (click on your area in map): 
     https://www.weather.gov/

4.  Tropical Cyclone analysis, etc. -- NCAR Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project: 
     http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/

5.  Tropical Cyclone analysis, etc. -- U Wisc. CIMSS Tropical Cyclones:
     http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

6.  Good site for discusion and model forecasts: 
     https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

7.  NWS forecast models: 
     https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

8.  NWS national 3-day forecasts with discussions: 
     https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Post script:  Any way to put this in its own category outside of "Wolfpack Sports".  If so, will it still show up on the main page with the other discussions?  Would like to make it easy to find in the future if a few dozen new threads get made before this one gets updated.  Thanks!

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Comments

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,413
    Second anniversary of the worst night of rain I hope to ever see was Tuesday. 16” in about 5 hours. Harvey was one for the ages. Hope this weekend isn’t too bad
  • Thanks for sharing 84.  Much appreciated.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,413
    Beaumontweather.com is an outstanding page for following tropical systems
  • RickRick Posts: 1,394PFN Referee
    I have a nephew who just moved to Florida. He is right in the path. Hope he is ok
  • 44rules44rules Posts: 287
    Rick, my brother lives in Orlando. His family has ridden out many hurricanes. They never leave.
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 97
    Texpack said:
    Beaumontweather.com is an outstanding page for following tropical systems

    Thanks Texpack, nice site!
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,650PFN Referee
    edited August 30
    This is some good info and great links, Mets!  Do you ever use gr2analyst or grlevel3 for looking at radar data?  It's an awesome tool to have when the proverbial shit is hitting the fan in the spring for tracking thunderstorms.

    Hopefully this thread doesn't get too big this hurricane season, but I got that feeling we just getting started.

    As to your query about categories you can always find threads you start in "My Threads" link in the menu.  I believe yours is the first request for additional categories for the forum.. I can't remember why just created the single category for the site (I know you have to have at least one).. but iirc there was a reason.. I think it prevented an extra step when creating new threads so I kept it simple for simplicity sake.
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 97
    This is some good info and great links, Mets!  Do you ever use gr2analyst or grlevel3 for looking at radar data?  It's an awesome tool to have when the proverbial shit is hitting the fan in the spring for tracking thunderstorms.

    Hopefully this thread doesn't get too big this hurricane season, but I got that feeling we just getting started.

    As to your query about categories you can always find threads you start in "My Threads" link in the menu.  I believe yours is the first request for additional categories for the forum.. I can't remember why just created the single category for the site (I know you have to have at least one).. but iirc there was a reason.. I think it prevented an extra step when creating new threads so I kept it simple for simplicity sake.
    Yes, I have used both gr2analyst and grlevel3.  Now that I'm retired and don't pay a lot for Internet, I go cheap and don't use them.  However, they just as good, and maybe even a bit better in some regards, as the NWS office computer platforms.  You can request the actual level 2 and level 3 radar data for an NWS site and then use gr2analyst (for level 2 data) and grlevel3 (for level 3 data) to see the radar products. 

    The difference between level 2 and level 3 data?  Level 2 data is the raw radar data - reflectivity, velocity, spectrum width, etc.  Level 3 data is precipitation, echo top, etc. -- anything that has to be made by the radar computer's algorithms.

    Here are a few places for more information and data locations:

    - NWS Southern Region Jetstream weather school:

    - Iowa State University (IEMCOW) radar archive (see a NCDC link here also)
      https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/radar.phtml

    - NWS Radar Operations Center Website -- has level 2 and 3 data links

  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 339
    Dorian screwed our vacation plans.  Going to Tom Sawyer a raft on Lake Norman supported solely by empty Tuffy cans instead.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 687
    So it looks like this crap could hit NC? Reverting to that late 80s / early 90s weather pattern.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,517
    edited August 31
    Holy holy humps of sacred feces, this rascal could be another Hugo....if my memory serves me....

    According to the wiki on Hugo, it has similarities.   I don’t know how accurate the USA link is compared to other models and other parameters, Hugo was not a top 10....but I recall it as it damaged my mother’s property in Catawba county and also one of my plants in Sumter county (SC) as well as another one in Monroe, NC.  Many of my friends had massive tree damage to cleanup and spent as much as $20K for that “uninsured” task back then....

    I will leave up to our own “Greg” to comment.  The rainfall prediction map looks to me like the gurus are forecasting a glancing blow and it will skirt the coast.  Hugo was supposed to be headed to Wilmington if I recall or maybe even further inland.....maybe halfway to Raleigh.  

    Way too early....but the MSM’s headlines of rain will be measured in FEET and will be more devastating than Katrina.....and subsequent emails predicting US destruction and asking for money.....are all happening....  I guess we just wait.....but I am watching it more closely now...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/113611.shtml?rainqpf#contents

    https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/07/07/most-destructive-hurricanes-of-all-time
  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 339
    We had to cut up 20 trees just to access Providence Road after Hugo.  My future wife came home from State while we cut a tree off her dad’s garage.  No one escapes these storms.  At least Fall is coming.
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 97
    edited August 31
    Holy holy humps of sacred feces, this rascal could be another Hugo....if my memory serves me....

    According to the wiki on Hugo, it has similarities.   I don’t know how accurate the USA link is compared to other models and other parameters, Hugo was not a top 10....but I recall it as it damaged my mother’s property in Catawba county and also one of my plants in Sumter county (SC) as well as another one in Monroe, NC.  Many of my friends had massive tree damage to cleanup and spent as much as $20K for that “uninsured” task back then....

    I will leave up to our own “Greg” to comment.  The rainfall prediction map looks to me like the gurus are forecasting a glancing blow and it will skirt the coast.  Hugo was supposed to be headed to Wilmington if I recall or maybe even further inland.....maybe halfway to Raleigh.  

    Way too early....but the MSM’s headlines of rain will be measured in FEET and will be more devastating than Katrina.....and subsequent emails predicting US destruction and asking for money.....are all happening....  I guess we just wait.....but I am watching it more closely now...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/113611.shtml?rainqpf#contents

    https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/07/07/most-destructive-hurricanes-of-all-time
    Nice info!

    It's very tempting, but I try not to compare storms (i.e. the forecast of one storm with where one went in the past).  I've heard that call an "analog."  Sometimes it is a good comparison and sometimes it isn't, even if the storm goes on the same track as the old one did.

    Regarding the track forecast, the further out in time the forecast, the greater the error.  Basically, the center of the storm could be anyway in the forecast cone at a particular forecast point in time.  (Hopefully that isn't starting to sound like Star Trek gobbledygook!)  The hurricane center has a video on the subject of their forecast cone:


    So, from the 8:00 forecast of this morning (8/31), Dorian could stay out in the Atlantic or go across FL and hug the west side up into GA.  Forecast models can change with each run.  That's why us human beings are needed to provide some sense to the output.  I  tend to trust the experts at NHC.  I like their arrival time of winds graphics.  The rainfall graphics are from the Hydrometeorological Predication Center (HPC) in D.C.

    I haven't seen Greg F. since about 1980.  Hope he is doing well.  If you were from Rockingham County, you would have said "our Earl Burton," a famous radio "weatherman" personality from the 1960s and 1970s in Reidsville.  Can't say I compare -- or want to be compared -- to either one, especially now that I'm in retirement gear.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 2,331PFN Referee
    We had to cut up 20 trees just to access Providence Road after Hugo.  My future wife came home from State while we cut a tree off her dad’s garage.  No one escapes these storms.  At least Fall is coming.
    I was living outside of Charlotte for Hugo, that crap was absolutely terrifying.

    Helped my Dad cut the tree off our van, we used black yard waste bags and duct tape, still went up for the State game that weekend.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 687
    Latest models look like it misses us and Florida. All you need to know is how far off these models were just 36 hours ago to know their reliability.
  • YogiNCYogiNC Posts: 449
    The Navy had moved me way north just a year before Hugo came calling.  Had made lots of friends with locals and had Navy buddies still there when it hit.  Lots of my family also lived in Florence area.  Hugo brought an 18 ft storm surge.  It also flattened 75% of the pine trees in the Francis Marion National Forest northwest of Charleston. 

    Friend of mine lost his sailboat that was moored in the Municipal marina.  Every boat there was pushed out of the water and across Lockwood Blvd (6 lanes) and into a pile 6 - 8 boats high and 10 rows deep.  I saw a picture of this on CNN, it was unbelievable.  He said his boat was on the bottom of that pile.

    Folks in Charleston still refer to it as "the BIG ONE".  If you vacation down that way, and I would encourage you to, lots to do and it's a fun place, you no doubt will see at least one local wearing a Hugo T shirt, STILL.  Most will be grandma types so don't get your hopes up there. That was in 89 and even I was much younger then.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,650PFN Referee
    cat 5 storm now yikes!
  • Pack78Pack78 Posts: 242
    This hurricane is a great reminder that with all of our technological abilities in terms of weather forecasting, there is still so much that we do not fully understand...too many degrees of freedom?
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,517
    Interesting discussion.  Do not consume alcohol before reading.  Extra shot of caffeine recommended 

    https://blog.weather.us/an-in-depth-look-at-dorians-track-forecast/
  • 1984Met1984Met Posts: 97
    Interesting discussion.  Do not consume alcohol before reading.  Extra shot of caffeine recommended 

    https://blog.weather.us/an-in-depth-look-at-dorians-track-forecast/
    A bit too wordy for me -- he needed to take the technical writing class I took at State.  Still, it's a good write-up.

    Here is an important point to remember about weather models.  To understand them you first need to know their strengths and weaknesses.

    Here is a second point regarding computer models.  I always take them with a grain of salt.  The model isn't the ends-all but is a tool.  My method of weather forecasting always started out with a very good analysis.  Being good tools, models can be what could be called "wishcasting" if the "weaknesses" are pulling more weight than the "strengths".  Even a good meteorologist can miss it.
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,413
    People who get all worked up about the accuracy of the track several hundred miles out never took geometry. One or two degrees off of the predicted line creates a huge error in terms of miles by the time the thing gets to shore. I read one time that four days out, the average error is like 250 miles. 
  • Farmers around here picking corn like crazy.  I think we all suffer from PTSD from Florence and Matthew.  

    Hoping for no repeats of Florence.  Thought Matthews 16" was bad.  Florence 25" was awful.

    Regarding models, my quantitative genetics professor in grad school loved to say that all models are wrong, we only hope they are useful.
  • wolfanaticwolfanatic Posts: 309
    Texpack is right...I once ran compass cruising timber in the Congaree Swamp..A two or three foot error over five miles is a major FU..  Nothing worse than hitting the boundary 200 yards offline.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,650PFN Referee
    edited September 1
    Texpack said:
    People who get all worked up about the accuracy of the track several hundred miles out never took geometry. One or two degrees off of the predicted line creates a huge error in terms of miles by the time the thing gets to shore. I read one time that four days out, the average error is like 250 miles. 
    Yeah.. it's like why even bother making a prediction.. Just be like, "hey, entire south east coast of US, watch your ass next week"... CONES of uncertainty!
  • wolfanaticwolfanatic Posts: 309
    Cone of silence....BTW, what's up with the Coogs, Tex?
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