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Appreciation

I just wanted to take a quick second to say how much I actually appreciate this site, how much I enjoy reading opinions of others who like me love our university and how much I regret some of the stuff I've posted. Anywho...thank you group. We endure heart ache but by God...we are the best fan base around. Enthusiasm, Honesty and Pride. Those are the stregnths of the PACK I hold the most value in.

Carry on PackNation

Comments

  • ryebreadryebread Posts: 830

    +1 to TAT for getting the band back together.

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,529PFN Referee

    hell yeah.. much more active summer this year than in years past and I think the site will really ramp back up once the football season gets nearer.

    Huge thanks to all you contributors because wouldn't be a site without y'all.

  • GsoPackBackerGsoPackBacker Posts: 361

    Well said SamIam, and much appreciated TAT.

  • freshmanin83freshmanin83 Posts: 752PFN Referee

    Glad to have a place to hear from fellow Pack fans and I agree with what has been said thanks TAT and all who participate.

  • RickRick Posts: 1,315PFN Referee

    I appreciate the back and forth with differing opinions that is done in a friendly way. That's a rare thing on the internet.

  • 44rules44rules Posts: 263

    I like it too. Except for those scumbags Rick and Grey... ! Just kidding. I actually really enjoy reading the opinions of both of you, especially since, depending upon my mood, I agree with each of you at different times! Thanks for the enjoyment over the years.

  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,293

    I have been checking the site this week between naps on the Redneck Riviera. Always interesting stuff to be found. If I could get some of that guaranteed 8% I read about I’d be napping here a lot more often.

  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 270

    I think that 8% was ordinary income but I’ll let Roo discuss that. I bought some AbbVie abbv 3 years back in my wife’s 401k. It took a haircut with the Allergan acquisition. It’s not 8% but 6.4 around $66.70. Seems like a solid move by Abbv. Dividend tax rate of course.

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,529PFN Referee
    edited June 28

    Yeah it's good to be skeptical of the word "guaranteed" with anything higher than say 3%.

    Getting a "guaranteed" 8% from a dividend stock means you aren't diversified. Meaning it's higher risk and your capital is volatile.

    Low cost total stock market index funds earning paltry 2% dividend along with appreciation have served me well for the stock portion of my assets. I don't trust any stock adviser (and certainly not myself) to beat the market consistently. Much less trust them to do it while paying a substantially higher fee than 0.04% index fund fee. A 1-3% fee paid each and every year by active managed funds requires that fund manager to beat the market by that much just to keep pace with the index. Who can you name other than Warren Buffet capable of that on a long term basis?

    ...and now the "Appreciation" title of this thread has taken on a different meaning πŸ˜‚

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,465

    First,

    Troll and I have some different definitions of certain word and viewpoints, and we have debated such offline on occasion. I want to add my thanks for what he has launched and there are many that enjoy the diversity and banter. Keep at it, Troll, and like me, keep an open mind🀯

    The 8% that I alluded to is ordinary interest income from a “public” LLP. Look up Hard Money or Google Socotra Capital. I can provide more details offline and I do NOT get a bird dog or referral fee. A friend’s son worked for them and the friend did his own due diligence. He and I exchange investment ideas and strategy and I spent a couple of hours talking to the CEO and he was very forthright and upfront about the concept and how he protected investors. So, unlike Bernie’s (the OTHER Bernie) little charade, this one is licensed in CA and NV and we get an ACH each month of our prorated share of the last month’s interest collection, minus the “overhead” expenses. It CAN be reinvested if you like. There are many folks from all walks off life that participate in Socotra...

    As to the tax... we pay ordinary income rates as it is interest. NOW, if you get a qualified dividend from a corporation (private or publicly traded), it is subject the the following. BTW, we do NOT pay CA state tax, only NC.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/qualifieddividend.asp

    I spent a LOT of time planning my retirement and looked at many things to create wealth as well as have a sustainable income. IF you get a “Dividend” from an LLP, MLP or a REIT, then that is NOT a qualified dividend. In most cases, it is called a “distribution” and you do NOT, with a few quirks, pay income tax on it. BUT, when you sell it, you find that you have a greatly reduced basis and you have a large tax liability. BUT, when you FINALLY sell all of it, you unlock passive losses and will offset a LOT of it. My wife is a very knowledgeable tax preparer and she keeps records and understands the laws. But, there is NO way or manner that you can estimate the taxable outcome. I would also tell you that selling only a piece or partial shares of an MLP, LLP, or REIT, you will almost always get screwed and pay taxes on the gains from a partial sale. Better to be IN or OUT and not sell partial positions. It typically takes a very knowledgeable CPA or tax preparer to do the supplemental schedules. Nightmare is a word my wife uses each March....but she understands that it was part of a multidisciplined approach and she enjoyed the higher interest rate $$’s...so she wades through it.

    BTW, most common stock will distribute a “qualified dividend “, then you get reduced or favorable tax treatment, on the Federal level.... And THAT is why most MLP’s will be in the mid 8% range and a common stock will be in the 3 - 5% range.

    I sort of figured out early in life that I was not going to be an entrepreneur and that I needed to save and invest wisely and focus on achieving financial independence at an early age so I could retire and enjoy the fruits of my hard work and discipline.

    Again....not hijacking...responding.

    Thanks again to Troll and his low paid staff...

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,465
    edited June 28

    And THAT, with which I ❀️ heartily agree, is why I quick trying to “play” the market.

    I have more than ample charts and graphs of real and theoretical portfolios that prove a good mix of market index funds, properly diversified by a few sectors, will outperform most market gurus. Vanguard’s funds have very low fees. I shudder to think how many Excel spreadsheets that I contrived. So I moved from common stock to my “toolbox” of Vanguard funds several years ago. Prior to that, I had my share of good picks, particularly MLP’s and now I have a negative basis in several of them and some utility stocks and have spun them off, up to the last major Tax Law rewrite, to our church.

    i have two BIL’s and many friends that once Pooh Poohed my approach. Then in several seminars, the CFP’s have started to recommend a market index diversified portfolio. Sure makes it easier to control and you don’t get worried about some social media crucifixion of a company or a CEO. My ROI is a few points higher than a “manager” that one of my BIL’s. He finally turned over all his assets to as his wife told him he was NOT as smart as he thought he was and that he no longer had trading authority in her substantial “dowry” account....which her grand daddy left her.

    I have evaluated several of Vanguard’s managed funds and run sample portfolios for 20 years back compared to their low fee “index” funds. The diversified mix of index funds is usually 2 or so % HIGHER than using a Managed Fund....especially those touted as “INCOME” funds. I finally figured out that I would be “sharing” the income and chose NOT to follow that strategy.

    I also quickly abandoned the IPO Pot of Gold approach as the Leprechaun kept running off with my $$’s.

    GEE, Troll.....see there, we DO have a lot of stuff and thoughts in common....how enlightening...

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,529PFN Referee
    edited June 28

    Roo, hope they've given you access to their balance sheet. Hard money lending is not without risk and then passing back 8% to investors sounds unsustainable to me.

    Also looks like the business you mentioned requires one to be an accredited investor.. which means the business doesn't need to answer to the SEC. The thinking as I understand it is that accredited investors can more easily absorb major losses.

    I certainly hope it works out for you, but I'll stand by my statement that there is no such thing as "guaranteed" 8% return.

    Index funds we certainly do agree on. You just can't argue with math. Jack Bogle, who passed 6 months ago, is a personal hero of mine.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,465

    Yes and yes.

    Interesting that we both have a hero complex for John Bogle. Sometime read the book, Gone Fishin’ Portfolio. Fascinating reading....almost an infomercial for Vanguard.

    As to Socotra, do the due diligence. They are licensed in CA and NV. They are actually “mortgage brokers” and we, the members of their LLP or maybe LLC, provide the funding.

    Their business model is well planned and executed. They lend typically at 50% of HARD appraised value....used to be 60%, but to protect the funding, they became more conservative.

    They grew almost 4X (loan $$ outstanding) since mid 2015. Foreclosures are actually a blessing. There is another entity that buys them and the investors don’t lose anything and they are resold typically @ 75% of appraisal. Now have over $60 Million (estimate from memory) in loans. Doctors, lawyers, professional athletes, restaurant owners....you name it are clients. They require some financial info on the partners and will not take money from folks that are financially shaky. A lot of investors use it for short term parking of money for the sale of businesses or bonuses or their rainy day fund as they operate based on project and contracts.

    Socotra acts just like any bank. They make THEIR money in the loan servicing fees. I get 8%. They lend around 12%. They also have close to $1 Million is a reserve fund. Several others have entered the market and charge a little more but also go upwards of 75% of hard appraisal value.

    So, after my due diligence which did review their audit reports and the BBB and their licenses, I dipped my toes. I have a fixed % of my portfolio that is there. Since the total portfolio has grown in the past years, I may send them a bit more as my Socotra $$ is now is far less than my original % and I need to rebalance. I consider it my “cash/CD” portion, so it is not a substantial %.... reasonable but prudent.

    This concept is NOT unheard of. I could name prominent individuals in the “connected Raleigh” social circles that do the same thing. They do short term loans at double digit rates and KNOW their clients and have rarely had a foreclosure. Socotra just handles it where the partnership is broader.

    I have friends that are more independent than I am. They all use different strategies. One sold a business and uses a friend that is a CFP. He bought a BitCoin mining operation....actually was a partner in it. Another was a very high ranking corporate officer and has 60% of his portfolio in his Ex company stock. UNHEARD OF if you read all the CFP articles. His former company’s stock price will cycle based on a commodity price. He built his fortune by charting the S&P, the company stock price and the commodity price. Developed his model and then managed his pension (company funded), 401K and stock options. He has a SELL signal and a BUY signal and he is either IN or OUT. He was given 7 years salary as part of his “non-compete” retirement contract in Warrants. He has averaged 15% for the past 20 years or so. He sold all 60% 2 months ago and has it in short term CD’s or special MMF paying 2.75%. His company stock paid a little over 4%, so he loses a little income. But, he will follow Buffett’s rule and when others are selling, he will be a pig and BUY. I think that is how Buffett put it.

    You probably don’t remember the Carter years when the prime was 21%. I sold every stock that I had and had it in CD’s. A buddy beat me. He bought 30 year treasuries or something along that line. It was a US Government piece of paper, NOT a junk or corporate bond, He cried when it finally matured. He put 90% of his holdings, then, into it and then built back up his investment portfolio by saving. He is a Treasury Ladder guy...

    So, creating wealth takes on all sorts of different nuances and strategies. Whatever works for you....just be aware that what seems like a great plan might not be and vice versa and learn from others as you form your own approach. My “Set and Forget” portfolio is currently maybe a couple of % under the S&P, but I have upwards of 35% cash, bonds, CD or equivalent. I sleep well and rarely make a market move....unless I get rid of a mistake or two or take a profit.

    PM if you are interested... I share the % and the mutual funds....as well as the logic. Thanks and good night.πŸ˜΄πŸ’€

  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,529PFN Referee

    Sounds like you've only a portion in Socotra, "play" money if you will. Nothing wrong with that, but could be viewed as an admission of "not guaranteed", no? πŸ˜‰

    Nothing wrong with that, of course, and would seem to be the prudent way to approach it.

    Yes, in the 70s you could easily get your guaranteed 8%, I think treasuries went as high as 14% at one point. That would be the nominal rate, not the real rate (accounting for inflation) which was closer to 2-3%. Now if your buddy held that 30 year bond to term then yup, he probably got his 8%.

    You're friend doing the market timing averaging 15% over last 20 years.. you have seen the data to verify? I've found embellished fishing stories are more common than not when discussing with others about their investing strategies. They'll be quick to tell you about their gains, but leave out the parts where they made the wrong call.

  • Fastback68Fastback68 Posts: 270

    I went to work for a company in Charlotte in 1990 that had opened the regional office in 1965. I would say that 60% of the employees still there had “joined up” together. There was a 7 year or so period from the late 70’s to 1985 where these guys loaded up on double digit 30 year t-bill rates and held them to maturity. It was almost like a death in the family when their last chunk of t-bills hit expiration. There was a premium auditor in particular that held high yield cds with NCNB. They called him monthly trying to get him to cash in. It was harassment in my eyes.

  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,465

    Not seen his net worth, but have visited and seen his toys and such and also know some of his “spending habits”. He is a straight shooter. Always looks for best price. Likes a challenge such as dismounting and remounting 22.5” tires on his 45 ft motor home after finding a deal on the 8 Michelin tires. Also rented an engine hoist and pulled that tranny out of his Honda Pilot and rebuilt it to save $1700 or so

    Probably top five on my list of brilliant people with common sense. Set up environmental experiments in the Artic on an ice crusher as he was one of the top dogs (PhD) in the research dept of his Fortune 25 companies

    I would make a sizable bet on his numbers

    Good luck with your investing. Stay focused, but stop and smell the roses. Our Kids still talk about our vacations and what we did... out of a large pop up camper

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