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Selection Sunday (6pm on St. Patty's day!)

TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,484PFN Referee
Our fate is rather murky.  And that's with good reason seeing as this will be a brand new selection process with the NET and we just don't have any historical data points to go back to compare to.

VaWolf has done a tremendous job of keeping us informed to the best of his abilities.  The single thing I guess we could all land on is that we will be a bubble team come Sunday.  My biggest take away from reading his informative threads on the subject is that the Pack has exposed a flaw in the NCAA's new system.  How they choose to handle that is anybody's guess.

So buckle up and try not to fall off the the edge of your seat come Sunday evening!
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Comments

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 2,075PFN Referee
    Texas losing was a Good Thing for us. I'd say 80/10/10 between Dayton/regular seed/NIT
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 248PFN Referee
    "this will be a brand new selection process with the NET and we just don't have any historical data points to go back to compare to."

    This is true, but we do know a lot about how the Selection Committee has used rankings in the past.  So it seems reasonable to expect that the rankings will be used pretty much like they always have been....more for seeding than bubble selection.

    The biggest question in my mind is the use of the quadrants versus, Top 25, Top 50, and Top 100 wins used in the past to sort through the bubble.    Is beating a non-NCAAT team on the road (ranked 75th or higher) really going to be given more weight than beating a NCAAT team at home?  

    We'll certainly know a lot more in a couple days.

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 575

    Ok - did some analysis of NET, Kenpom, Sagarin and BPI

    Looked at Top 60 teams in each. There are 65 teams that fall into that category.

    At around #42 in the NET, you start seeing those who are missing in one of the 4.

    As of right now, if you look at 36 at large bids – and look @ Top 36 in the NET, you can basically say, as of right now the Top 41 teams in the country will go.

    The SeC, ACC, Big 12, WCC, So Con champs were in those Top 36.

    Villanova winning adds a spot
    Houston or Cincinnati winning adds a spot 
    Buffalo winning adds a spot 
    Anyone remaining in Big 10 not Minnesota opens a spot 
    Washington could potentially open a spot
    Utah State winning opens a spot.

    Again, essentially we need to be the 41st team on the list right now. The good news is that number can only go up and we are in Top 35 of all of those metrics.

  • Good information Choppack1.  I like your thought process.  Go Pack!
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 575
    +5 so far today. Nothing but good news. Hopefully we will get another one tonight.
  • realpackfanrealpackfan Posts: 99
    Lunkhead says State is out!  Like this is a shock.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 575
    However, if you favor back room deals you probably don’t want to include metrics...for the same reason none of us want our job outsourced. 

    Apparently, according to the experts, the NCAA spent a ton of money on an advanced metric and is going to ignore it. Sadly, I trust their judgment (the experts.) Committees have to have a reason to justify their existence and their ignorance of a model they created would be proof positive that this (back room politics) is exactly what’s happening. To be fair, we have been a beneficiary of the same process in the past.
  • AdventurooAdventuroo Posts: 1,342
    edited March 17
    I ASSUME that if Auburn takes Rick and the Vols, that will (maybe, might, kinda, possibly, etc) help our stature?

    This morning’s scripture was almost the complete reading of Job.  Was in choir and had another State fan beside me.  Scribbled a note that we ought to get rid of St. Patrick (created the first “WORM” drive) and go with Job.  He nearly lost it and I almost cracked him up....

    if ever there was a biblical character that  was the epitome of our N C State BB situation, then I don’t know whom.....

    We will see.  Keep sharp objects and firearms locked up and put netting under all upper story windows....
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 575
    Roo - yes, Job is the perfect equivalent for NC State fans. It requires much patience indeed.
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,484PFN Referee
    In the end Job made out even better than when he began... I guess we're still waiting on the part!
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 2,075PFN Referee
    Aubie doing us at least some favours.
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 248PFN Referee
    I won't be around tonight or tomorrow until after lunch.   Be sure and post any links to any decent articles that you run across.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 575
    It matters not, the committee made up their mind before the game. 

    We may have a NET, Kenpom, BPI, and Sagarin that say we should go, but from everything I am reading, that doesn’t matter. Our NCSOS stunk, we had a lousy conference schedule and we only beat one team in the Top 20. 

    Apparently RPI and the RPI related metrics still loom very large in spite of the $$ spent on NET. How beaucratic of the NCAA - pay to create a model you ignore. Did we really expect anything different?
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,484PFN Referee

  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 575
    “We don’t like your experience. You have done extremely well producing results in easy projects, you have understandably struggled in projects that 98% of people fail miserably at. You have done as well, actually probably a little better as your competition in challenging, but reasonable projects. All the metrics tell us you belong, but we’re going to ignore them because we like meeting on someone else’s dime and none of you guys is going to be our CEO anyway.”
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,484PFN Referee
    edited March 17
    Twittosphere's a bickering cesspool over these bubble teams... time to expand to 128!!
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,254
    The explanations will be more significant than the selections this year. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,254
    Twittosphere's a bickering cesspool over these bubble teams... time to expand to 128!!
    With the limited amount of brain function I have left, I can’t afford to expose myself to Twitter 
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,484PFN Referee
    Texpack said:
    The explanations will be more significant than the selections this year. 
    Agreed.
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 575
    ^ here, here.
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 2,075PFN Referee
    anyone know if we are one of the CBS "live reaction" sides this year?
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,254
    If the NET is directly substituted for the RPI, we will be a single digit seed. The more I think about it, the more I like our chances. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,254
    anyone know if we are one of the CBS "live reaction" sides this year?
    I just hope they don’t screw up the entire show like they did last year. 
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 2,075PFN Referee
    Hippo predicts! 80% - Play-in Round Participant 10% - straight #10 seed 10% - #1 overall NIT seed
  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 2,075PFN Referee
    I want a live feed of the hissy fit Fatass Lunardi throws when we get in.
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