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ACC Update - 1/28

Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 295PFN Referee
edited January 30 in Wolfpack Sports

Timely ACC updates are nearly impossible given that:

-          ACC games are played on every day of the week except Friday,

-          NET rankings are being posted around lunchtime

-          I still have a real job.

 So for this week, I’m using the NET rankings through Sunday’s games.   Which means the data below will be out of date as soon as the Duke/ND game wraps up tonight.  As usual, it is what it is.

 

TREND GRAPHS OF NET RANKINGS

 

 

Since the last second win over Clemson didn’t give State much of a boost, I’m glad we didn’t have to see how far a loss would have dropped State. 

Not a lot of exciting stuff here.   FSU started the season 1-4 and it shows up pretty clearly.   Their two game winning streak since then (Clemson, Miami) isn’t overly impressive, but it beats the alternative.

State’s huge drop after the loss in WS and L'ville's slow,steady rise are about the only other things that stand out to me.

 

Not a lot of interesting stuff to discuss with the trends in the Bubble Watch either.   But if you compare ‘Cuse’s NET ranking with their conference record (5-2), there looks to be a disconnect somewhere (unless you’re following them a lot closer than I am).   So let’s see what we see in the overall NET table.

 

NET RANKINGS

 

For SYR, the two Q-2 losses and even worse, the two Q-3 losses likely explains why their NET ranking isn’t any higher.   The high point of their resume has to be the two Q-1 wins on the road against Duke and Ohio State.  So while they’re listed on the bubble, Boeheim and company are sitting pretty good to this point.

FSU’s conference record doesn’t seem to match their NET ranking, especially considering they’ve lost to BC and Pitt on the road.   But those losses don’t turn out to be as terrible as they sound, with the Pitt loss currently in Q1 and the BC loss in Q2.    (After all, it’s not like they lost to WF.)   Their two Q1 wins are over Purdue (#11) at home and LSU (#15) at a neutral location, so a few stumbles along the way shouldn’t hurt too bad.

VT has one really good Q1 win (#11 Purdue) and one so-so win against #32 Washington (both at neutral locations).   The OOC SOS is still pretty bad, but it could be worse.....

State’s OOC SOS ranks #352 out of 353 teams in Div 1.   Anyone that isn’t concerned about how the Selection Committee will view that dirty, little secret hasn’t listened to me drone on about OOC scheduling for well over a decade.   State’s best win (#26 Auburn) along with something like a 10-8 conference record is probably not going to be enough for good news on Selection Sunday.

 

CONFERENCE RANKINGS

 https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/Conference%20Rankings%20-%20Jan.%2027.pdf

 I don’t know how important these rankings are, but the NCAA has published a couple so far this year.   This one has B-12 #1, B-10 #2, SEC #3, and ACC #4.    I may look into these a little more this week, but life has to get off of me first.

 

ACC STANDINGS


To this point, I would pick L’ville as my pleasant surprise thus far.   The loss to Pitt was more than made up by the huge win in Chapel Hill.

 The unpleasant surprise has to be a tie between Clemson, ND, and Miami; all with only one ACC win thus far.

 

UPCOMING ACC SCHEDULE


This week is the start of a key, three-game stretch for State.  Cavs and Hokies in Raleigh this week and a bus ride to Chapel Hill on Tuesday, 2/5.  0-3 would not be good.

While I’ll probably at least check on a few other games, the UNC/L’ville game on Sat and the L’ville/VT game on Monday, 2/4 are two that I’ll make an effort to catch.

Here's hoping for good news by this time next week.



Comments

  • KingHippo_fka_BJD95KingHippo_fka_BJD95 Posts: 2,331PFN Referee
    "It is what it is" - sommet my Dad loved to say, and now I do as well.  PERFECT engineer phrase for almost any occasion.

    That 6-0 Q2 jumps out at me, hopefully we get a few scalps to take us back up to the 8 line.

    Clemson finish allowed me not to worry so much re missing entirely.  But a 7 seed makes me nervous, and lower takes most of my hope.
  • PIRPIR Posts: 80

    Timely ACC updates are nearly impossible given that:

    -          ACC games are played on every day of the week except Friday, 

    -          NET rankings are being posted around lunchtime

    -          I still have a real job.




    Of these there is only only one that is under your control. Come on man, where do your loyalties lie? With something fleeting like yourself and your family or with something that will be around long after you’re gone - your team? 
    But seriously I do appreciate the time that you do put in. It’s always an interesting read each week. 
  • choppack1choppack1 Posts: 687
    From a quick dirty look, we appear to have 7 q1 games left...So worse we could do is go 2-5 vs them and 4-0 vs others. 

    That would give give us a 3-8 vs tier 1. I would imagine our net would hang around the same spot, but I have no idea. 

    As of of right now, I am of the same mind as you VaWolf, that our bad schedule has left us on the bubble in spite of our NET. Hopefully, we can go 4-3 vs big boys and 4-0 vs the midgets. If we do that, I think our NET will improve and we will be between a 4-6 seed depending on our ACC tournament performance.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,039
    Pitt would have to be my surprise team. They are much improved. 
  • TexpackTexpack Posts: 1,413
    If we go 2-1 over the next three I’ll be more surprised than I was when we went 8-0 vs Klempson over the final 19 seconds. 0-3 is more likely than 2-1. We have a lot of work to do to get a top tier win or two. 
  • TheAliasTrollTheAliasTroll Posts: 1,650PFN Referee
    good stuff, Va.   Hate to see us trending downwards.. brutal stretch coming up.
  • RickRick Posts: 1,394PFN Referee
    To be wakes only ACC win sucks.
    We have a tough road to the tournament because of our crappy schedule. He needs to improve that. Hopefully we get hot
  • Vawolf82Vawolf82 Posts: 295PFN Referee
    I forgot to mention a shake-up in my ACC SOS calcs (based on ACC wins of the four H/A opponents for each team).   Pitt and BC with a total of 4 wins (two of State's H/A opponents) has allowed FSU to take over the easiest ACC schedule since Clemson and Miami are sitting with a total of two wins.

    This is sure to be a neck and neck race throughout the season for the bottom of the ACC SOS.  :smile:
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,039
    Really tough, perhaps season defining stretch the next five. 
  • Not a good first step into the “defining stretch”.  This could be a death spiral for the season.
  • WulfpackWulfpack Posts: 1,039
    We currently sit in 8th place just ahead of GT, Clemson and BC. 3 of the next four against UNC, Cuse and Duke. Not looking good...
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